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Technology Stocks : CheckFree Holdings Corp. (CKFR), the next Dell, Intel? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BitWizrd who wrote (719)	12/15/1998 11:38:00 PM
From: TLindt	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 20297

For as good as it is, this is not as good as it gets. I watched e-commerce hit 1 Billion in sales last year in the 4th quarter...this year they say 3.5 billion. And a couple years out they say 800 Billion, I say a Trillion. With that kind of momentum, and the benefits to e-bill, primarily on the biller side in cost reductions...doing what they already do cheaper then they are doing it now...is fuel. A lot of new guys came in to this stock on the Orcale News and such, but the facts are...the critical mass is not in this segment yet. Like catching e-comm in the first Billion Zenith. These deals, alliances and partnerships...do not, will not show immediate results in earnings....they do however show that this show will be playing at a theator near you. Will e-bill grow a 1000 times in 4 or 5 years..IMO YES..and much more. Starting when it gets offered, as it has yet to be offered as a service. But let me just use a few numbers to do my future earnings projection on e-bill...by the seat of my pants. CheckFree currently has billers who produce 450 Million Bills a month. At say .32 each, and then say Checkfree shares the revenue generated with a portal, be it a Bank site or a traditional web portal. And split it 50/50....keeping .16 for each bill. Then 1/2 of that .16 is profit or 8 cents a bill, as CheckFree has stated. Make another assumption that only 20% of those bills from these 30 some odd billers are paid on line over the 5 year time frame. And then say Toilet Paper gets 75% of the Market on CheckFrees already signed billers like they say they are going to do. So you would have 450,000,000 bills by .08 or $36,000,000 potential gross. However only 20% of us do it...so $36,000,000 x .20 or $7,200,000 in actual e-bill revenues. Then assume that Toilet Paper is right and they get 75% of the e-bill market....so the potential of $7,200,000 x .25 is only $1,800,000. A Month By 12 is $21,600,000 a year or ~50 Cents on share on the first 30 odd billers over time on e-bill. So in my simple mind we are trading at 30x the future nearly worst case senerio. If however, Toilet Paper has overestimated their clout, and they end up with a 50/50 split. We trade at ~15x the future value of present 3 dozen billers. And you know what? It won't work with 3 dozen billers, it will takes thousands...that's where Orcale is a help. Doesn't matter really...if 20% end up doing it on the 3 dozen billers, it will be some of the same ones who post here, bank on the web, buy on the web, and see the advantages....and when they do. And they will, just as sure as e-comm is going from 1 Billion to a Trillion over some time frame...we get our reward, if we beat the competitor in the segment...we'll stink money. So says the 2x4.........