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To: Captain Jack who wrote (85518)12/16/1998 10:07:00 AM
From: TigerPaw  Respond to of 176387
 
There has not been a compelling reason to buy a new computer for the last three years. When Win95 came out it was necessary to upgrade to a pentium class machine to run effectively. Since then Microsoft has repackaged Win95 with their browser. All this attention to delivering nothing more than they had before has delayed products which could encourage upgrades such as WinNT 2000 or whatever. Those old pentium class machines are just fine (if you add a new disk).

Next year Intel will release it's new chipsets with Rambus and ever faster clocks. The hardware will be in place for a new level of applications. Things like desktop video editing which were painfully slow will become reasonable. This could lead to business applications like increased video conferencing or adding video content to online help or training. If software becomes available this could lead to a new upgrade cycle.

In the mean time the real growth will come from servers and storage as more and more information is stored. There is an increasing trend toward using laptops, even for those who do not travel farther than the conference room down the hall. Many three year old laptops need upgrading. In the absence of a reason to upgrade those desktops bought for the Win95 launch could last another couple of years before they more or less wear out.

So, what does this mean? Desktop sales are going to increasing come from outside the U.S. Server, storage, and laptops will be the main area of competition.
TP