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Technology Stocks : CheckFree Holdings Corp. (CKFR), the next Dell, Intel? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AugustWest who wrote (721)	12/16/1998 7:41:00 AM
From: Benny Baga	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 20297

70 to be laid off in citigroup's advanced development division, e-citi December 16, 1998 American Banker : The ax has fallen on Citigroup Inc.'s high-profile advanced development group, which in October was rechristened e-Citi to reflect its mission of "innovation and transformation." The e-Citi unit-not immune to cutbacks throughout the company formed by the merger of Citicorp and Travelers Group-said 70 people in support functions would be laid off, mainly at its development center in Los Angeles. The number is not big; many observers expect that 8,000 to 16,000 of Citigroup's 161,000 workers will leave as a result of merger-related restructuring. The e-Citi layoffs may even be less than proportionate, amounting to about 6% of the unit's 1,200-member work force. A Citigroup spokeswoman put the layoffs in the context of "the overall restructuring initiative" announced in October 1997. Under the leadership of corporate executive vice president Edward D. Horowitz, the advanced development group is a vehicle for achieving dominance via the Internet and other nontraditional delivery channels. Mr. Horowitz, who left a senior technology post at Viacom Inc. in January 1997 to join Citicorp, has been as emphatic as anyone in the Citigroup hierarchy about the revenue-generating, as opposed to cost- cutting, motivation of the megamerger. He has said that e-Citi enjoys the support of Citigroup co-chief executive officers John Reed and Sanford Weill, to whom Mr. Horowitz reports. The technology executive has engineered several partnership deals to bolster Citigroup's on-line presence. They include a co-marketing agreement with Virgin Group in the United Kingdom to offer customers Internet access, a prominent position on Netscape Communications Corp.'s Netcenter portal, and a project with the Mining Co. to develop on-line communities of interest. Citigroup also has invested in Transpoint, the bill presentment and payment processing venture started by Microsoft Corp. and First Data Corp., and it partly owns Integrion Financial Network and Meca Software LLC. "I don't want to be a technology company," Mr. Horowitz has said. "I want to be a commerce integration company and will go with the best of breed." Copyright c 1998 American Banker, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

To: AugustWest who wrote (721)	12/16/1998 12:04:00 PM
From: TLindt	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 20297

>>>That day will come. When anyone with an ISP address can pay bills on line! I say 12 months max(maybe a lot sooner). And that is something you can bank on Well I hope you understand I was being conservative to the point that they eventually fail? $1,800,000 a month on ~30 top 100 billers works out to about 1/10 OF ONE CENT A MONTH A BILLER IN NET REVENUE...five years out? ie...take any 10 Billers they have now, and they will make a PENNY, or 600,000 every month in Earnings. That's a monthly Bill Presentation rate of 22,500,000 billings at .08 net. So the assumption is they will present only 5% of the total billings(450,000,000 x .05 = 22,500,000), and net 8 cents on each bill, and that's all they will every do with this thing. That's conservative. REALLY In order to project revenues that far out, you'd need to know 1)Number of Households doing on line banking then, I've seen numbers ranging from 20 Million to 30 Million by then. 2)The percentage of those on line Households doing on line bill pay? 80, 70, 60, 50, 40? 3)How many monthly bills do those Households then have e-billed? 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10? 4)And what market share does CheckFree end up with? 25% 50-60% or? So if you took high side all the way.... 24,000,000 households(80% of the 30 MIL) getting 10 e-bills five years out, and CheckFree had 60% of the market at 32 cents a bill, they'd gross $76,800,000 a month in e-bill revenue. if you took the low side all the way.... 8,000,000 households(40% of the 20 MIL) getting 5 e-bills five years out, and Checkfree had 25% of the market at 32 cents a bill, they'd gross $3,200,000 a month in e-bill revenue. I would have to think, based on the number of alliances, partnerships and the players entering the segment now...that they are betting on the high side numbers, because it isn't worth it for MicroSoft to spend 2 years...along with FDC & Citi to go after a segment which only grosses $12,800,000 a month(4 x 3,200,000), $153,600,000 a year. Everybody IMO is eyeing the $102,400,000 a month(76,800,000 / .60), 1.536 Billion a year market. Or something between.