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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Jon K. who wrote (2020)12/16/1998 1:45:00 AM
From: donald sew  Respond to of 99985
 
INDEX UPDATE
==============================

Since my time is limited, I will not go into detail of the weakness in the market internals (NEW HIGHS/LOWS, A/D) which should be obvious.

Per a previous post, it was mentioned that the minimum rebound was 20% and that has now been achieved(intraday data).

Per my guitar calculations and my short-term technicals, I have noticed a similarity to previous stairsteps during the summer selloff. Originally I felt that we were developing a stair-step in the 8900-9100 range - frankly that has not change except that the range is lower and most likely larger. It is hard to explain these similarities, but that they are duplicating similar patterns in the oscillations.

My conclusion is that the DOW is forming a STAIR-STEP, and it should last for the rest of DEC. Simply put, I feel that there will not be much downside or upside. I realise that this is a tough call with the impeachment hearings, since many feel that the market will move dramatically up or down once the news is out from the hearings; however my system is hinting of a stair-step formation. So I am fully aware that the impeachment hearings can skew my analysis, nevertheless I will stick to it for now.

The bottom of this STAIR-STEP should be in at the recent lows of 8680, and it appears that the range could be anywhere from 200-400 points, so the top of this STAIR-STEP could be in the 8900-9100 range. So lets say 8700-8900/9100. The topside is uncertain, of course, since this first upswing most likely is not yet completed.

So if I am correct about this STAIR-STEP, even if CLINTON is not impeached, the DOW has little upside thru the end of this year, and likewise for impeachment. This STAIR-STEP should end in the early part of JAN.

Seeya



To: Jon K. who wrote (2020)12/16/1998 9:09:00 AM
From: Moominoid  Respond to of 99985
 
applying those triangles and flags to real chart isn't that
easy for me right now.


It is difficult. Often what starts off looking like a symmetrical triangle ends up a flag or rectangle.

David