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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Terry Whitman who wrote (35336)	12/16/1998 10:04:00 AM
From: James F. Hopkins	Respond to of 94695

Hi Terry; The whole thing has been nothing but a political charade and party politics. That it has a psychological effect is certain the main one is to keep our eyes diverted from the real issues. As far as guessing the knee jerk effects it will have on the market I would rather be prepared either way and then let the market tell me. This may be the position of most of the specialist, I'm not sure but it seems reasonable. --------------------- Well the Futures this morning are above fair value ( $12 today ) with buy programs set at $15, and sell programs set at $9.10, Last I looked they were just 99 cents below the program buy mark. In the last week we have not had a lot of program trading, not near what we had a few months ago. I wonder when that will start up again, or why it's fallen off. MMM is in the buy basket, and MOT in the sell, but that can change fast others I don't know of. ----------------------- My guess is that LTCM shook things up so much that derivative trading has generally gotten cautious and the volume in the Spoos has dropped off. Hence not as much to trigger the programs. Jim Ps Do You understand why the MDY can't beat the SPY over any longer time frame ? It looks like about a 10% spread a year since the MDY started, ( that would fall of if the market went flat, but in as much as I think we are just having a lull in volatility and that if any thing it will eventually pick up, the spread will most likely get to be more than 10%. --------------------- With low interest rates it's a lay up; buying the Spy on margin, then shorting the MDY. Jim

To: Terry Whitman who wrote (35336)	12/18/1998 6:30:00 PM
From: Darrin Vernier	Respond to of 94695

Terry, One other potential item you might or might not wish to consider. Everyone is focused on Y2K problems starting 1/1/2000. Actually, many programs reference one year forward for billing cycles, expirations, etc. We may get a preview of Y2K for this reason on 1/1/1999, which is fast approaching. Another potential unknown for the mix. Anyone with a technical analysis program that projects into the future will likely be among the first to discover a problem. Time to put aside some cash for a few new programs just in case, and a good factor to add to a 50/50 odds market scenario to tip the scales. Darrin ------------------------------------------------- geocities.com "I was wondering how to play this impeachment. We know there's going to be a big move in one direction or the other- just not certain on which way...Any further suggestions?"