To: Robert who wrote (6057 ) 12/16/1998 11:53:00 AM From: Goodboy Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 21143
I order tons of books from Amazon.com. I have to be one of their better customers and because its so damn easy to order along with searching titles or subjects of interest, I buy at least 3 times the amount of books I would if I simply roamed a regular book store. But this stock along with the other .com's is getting stupid. People are buying tulips. Investors are playing musical chairs and the music will stop at one point. When it will happen in my estimation? When the conclusion that they actually need to make profits and if they do, will that sustain the wildly ridiculous market valuation. The ananlysts view a static internet world with rising usage, more new participants everyday and thus a larger and larger market for Amazon. What is their big mistake? Barriers to entry in cyberworld are not that great and the opening of a new broadband gateway could create barriers to those who don't have deals. Intertainer has chosen to work with Barnes and Noble.com for their shopping service. What if in 5 years 30 to 50 million homes enter the internet or other broadband services through a cable company controled portal such as @home, Intertainer, Worldgate or others and Amazon doesn't have a deal with them? Intertainer plans to allow Barnes and Noble to add video to their site, thus allowing the author or critic to share their view of the book and your purchase can be made by hitting a button on your remote and a debit account, set up by Visa (as an example) will deduct the cost. People in internet land should pay more attention to the companies that are emerging or already exist that will dominate the gateway into the broadband kingdom of cable digital access and services. Yahoo, Amazon, AOL, Lycos, Infoseek and other will be threatened by a whole new breed of comparable, yet broadband tailored services based on similar, yet different technologies. In fact, the bulk of the companies that will dominate this new gateway are still private. Worldgate, Wink, Prasara, Tivo, Intertainer, Avio, Interactive Channel, Starsight, Inergy Online and many others. These are the Yahoo's, e-bay's and Infoseek's of the future. They will dominate broadband the way these companies have thrived on the internet. The only difference is that the Cable MSO gets to chose the portal and the services they will carry. Yahoo's search engine and chat rooms will be laughable against the stuff that these companies are thinking up. Yahoo has developed and worked inside of bandwidth constraints. These companies have designed and developed technologies for a broadband pipe. They are reinventing the wheel. By no means do I beleive that all the current .com's won't find a good or profitable place in the broadband world, but it is no guarantee. Why do you think AOL is fighting so hard to get the FCC to mandate that the TCI/AT&T venture must carry or offer their service. They fear the @home will be the AOL to the cable consumer. The stakes are very high in this game. Watch all the companies I mentioned above. Many of them will be moving from the venture capital phase to IPO's. They will be hot because people will see that broadband is a different paradigm with different rules. Oh yeah, and CCUR is one of the few ways that investors can get involved today. That is unless your a venture capitalist or have an in with Paul Allen. Good luck.