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To: tero kuittinen who wrote (1254)	12/17/1998 1:35:00 PM
From: Paul Shread	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 34857

Didn't Nokia announce its last split at $120? We could have a nice announcement with our next earnings surprise...

To: tero kuittinen who wrote (1254)	12/17/1998 4:11:00 PM
From: DaveMG	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 34857

Tero, Let's go through the logic of your previous post. "Daniel, telecom people I know in Asia seem to think that China has already decided to not to expand the current CDMA networks much and go with a national GSM policy instead. The recent announcement that China is banning further mobile telecom joint ventures with foreigners is designed to foster rapid growth of Chinese GSM manufacturing and ultimately export industry. When industrial policy such as this is decided on, it usually sticks. China is not officially saying anything about planning an all-GSM future, because they do not want Charlene on their backs. However, next year's big planned GSM expansion contracts should make the point" This makes a fair amount of sense, although I only understand the logic to some extent. I suppose the argument would be that CHina has already "invested" in GSM, why get involved in something new? although WCDMA IS going to be something new. And when one compares the amount of infrastructure and number of present day subs with projected numbers, the installed/existing base is really very small. I would think one would want to build a foundation that most efficiently upgrades to the future. Is this GSM? I don't know the answer although I suspect that this is where the standards fight really comes into play. The "dominant" standard will, due to economies of scale, be the most economical. So I think China has to make sure that they're aligned behind the dominant standard, just like everyone else. "And here is where the 3G debate becomes relevant. NTT-Docomo is taking a dim view on CDMA-compatible 3G solutions, because they would directly aid its competitors currently building IS-95 networks in Japan. And the Japanese now see all-GSM China as perhaps the most lucrative market for their own W-CDMA products. Put this together with the huge European GSM market and the North American GSM alliance that is pushing for W-CDMA in North America and the pressure to push through W-CDMA becomes considerable. No matter how fast Nokia has come up, if the W-CDMA debate breaks in its favor, there will be a sharp uptick. After that it is probably getting toppy for a while." I suspect that you may be right about NTT. I also think that implicit in this point of view is the idea that WCDMA is in fact no better than CDMA2000, that this argument that "WCDMA is an entirely new technology built from ground up with view towards optimizing performance etc", is a croque of doodoo. Otherwise, why would NTT have to worry about IS95 competitors, their stuff would be better, although both of these "standards" are so powerful I'm not sure what better means anyway.And for Japanese selling into China, well that's the same situation as for the Chinese. Everyone wants to be aligned behind the dominant standard, although if everyone IS aligned behind the dominant standard, what's the big advantage in being just like everyone else, unless of course you happen to be QCOM. "If the W-CDMA really gets approved in its non-IS-95-compatible incarnation, there will probably be a sharp downtick in Qualcomm's price and a big boost in Ericsson's. The entire rational of your post is predicated on the assumption that WCDMA does not need Q blesing IMO. So... the post should start by saying that " I , Tero K. believe that WCDMA will be able to move forward without QCOM. As a result China will go GSM, NTT will go GSM etc.." But that's not a jump you're ready to take yet is it? You do seem to be making progress though, that I'll admit:-) Dave Tero

To: tero kuittinen who wrote (1254)	12/18/1998 12:43:00 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Respond to of 34857

Tero, I don't understand why China would want to get stuck with legacy GSM when, as DaveMG says, they have barely got going in terms of total population using it and it is a dead end street which will be overlaid with some sort of CDMA. NOBODY is saying GSM is the future. The only question is whether the new standard cripples cdmaOne. So China should wait until the new standard is agreed, then start installing cdmaOne, expand GSM where sensible for a few years and prepare for W-3G [the fig leaf version of cdma2000]. I listened to Jiang Zemin, China Chief Number One Boss and what a crowd of well behaved, sitting up straight, polite, rigid and bored looking people there were sitting in the audience. The words sounded good, but self-sacrifice for the greater good didn't do much for me. Socialism with Chinese character which must not strangle economic productive energy which enables the socialism or something along those lines, was to be the guiding light. 20 years celebration of Deng's reforms was the occasion. It didn't sound as though they would be interested in any technological or economic dead end streets. Nor that the PLA would get to keep telecoms in their pocket. There will be competition against the socialist system. So your prognostications for next year are, I suspect, wishful thinking. Expect a 3G standard and China to go with the flow. Charlene won't be on their backs. They will get QUALCOMM and others in there to produce handsets and stuff along with forming research centres and Q! will be in favour of that. Better to produce them right there using the hundred million bright and civilized people who would love the chance to join the modern economic world. You already talking of buying Qcom? Wow! That will take me a while to absorb. But Jim Lurgio turned around. Bill Frezza gave in. Professor Lusigan lost. SETI will cave. ITU will agree. Ericy will sign. You will buy and Q! will win. Maurice

To: tero kuittinen who wrote (1254)	12/18/1998 5:28:00 PM
From: Clarksterh	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 34857

Tero - And here is where the 3G debate becomes relevant. NTT-Docomo is taking a dim view on CDMA-compatible 3G solutions, because they would directly aid its competitors currently building IS-95 networks in Japan. Good timing, since just one day later they broke ranks with Ericsson and said they want compromise <g>. . I'm going to buy if the decision turns against QCOM and they drop below 45. And what if it drops below 45 before any or decision, or even as unbelievable as it would be (a lot of unbelievable things happen to QCOM), after Ericsson agrees to the CDMA-2000 chip rate and a form of basestation synchronization? Clark