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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (2211)	12/17/1998 7:13:00 PM
From: dennis michael patterson	Respond to of 99985

Jerry Favors Analysis - Thursday, Dec. 17, 1998 8 p.m. At the highs today the Dow was up 89 points. We closed up 82.39 at 8872.99 . For the most part the market showed no negative ramifications from the Iraq attack yesterday. In fact it showed the exact opposite response today as the Dow opened firm and kept rising most of the day. The Dow closed near its highs of the day, up 82.39. The Gann 3-Day Chart turned up today, however if the Dow falls below today's low tomorrow the 3-Day Chart will turn right back down and signal a probable test of 8875 on a print basis. Today's print low was 8785.75. If 8775 is also broken the hourly charts will give a Sell Signal. That would suggest lower prices at least short term. The Bradley suggests at least a short term top or bottom near December 18 plus or minus 1 day. We are in that time frame now. The cycles suggest this rally attempt could last into December 22 plus or minus 1 day. However this does not rule out a brief correction beginning in the next day or two Both the Bradley and our cycles suggest some sort of at least short term high or low near December 18 plus or minus 1 day. The odds of this occurring are high. The cycles still call for a final high for this rally near December 22 plus or minus 1 day, but we must remain cautious for the next few days,no matter what the cycles say. We cannot count on this rally holding up long enough to satisfy the cycle forecast. We know the cycles have been very accurate the last few years,but even they are not infallible. We left instructions on Tuesday for short term option traders to sell longs at 8883 on a print basis in the Dow. If the Dow rallies tomorrow we want short term traders to sell longs at 8872 or higher on a print basis in the Dow. We want you to raise stops to 8811 on a print basis in the Dow for now. We do not want to imply that the rally cannot go further. The Cycles suggest a short term turning point near December 18 plus or minus 1 day and another near December 22 plus or minus 1 day. So we could see a short term sell-off for a day or so and then another rally next week to a more important top. But from here on we must take on a more cautious stance, even if the market is going higher short term. For now we want short term traders to follow the above instructions and if we sell too early so be it. We will give you more specific instructions Friday at 12:30.

To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (2211)	12/17/1998 8:14:00 PM
From: TA Trader	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Dennis, I'm not sure that you know this but having read numerous posts that you are long AMZN I thought I would post this to you. Tomorrow, Friday, on the closing, AMZN will be included in the NASDAQ 100 Index. Funds that index to the 100 will have to buy in and and are likely to push the price higher still. The last tick of the day should be very interesting. Keep this in mind also. The other big boys ie Intc, Msft, Dell, Cisco will by definition have less representation in the 100 and may see some weakness at the close.

To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (2211)	12/17/1998 8:26:00 PM
From: KM	Respond to of 99985

I love this comment. From Street.com market wrapup: The market shook off an announcement from the House of Representatives that the debate on impeachment will begin tomorrow, with a vote likely this weekend. "If this finally doesn't demonstrate the impeachment nonsense is virtually meaningless to Wall Street, nothing will," said Bill Meehan, chief market strategist at Cantor Fitzgerald. "If I hear 'the market hates uncertainty' one more time, I'm going postal -- especially when it's regarding something where there's no uncertainty. There's a better chance the Fed will raise interest rates next week than Clinton being removed from office."