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To: Steven R. Bergman who wrote (12887)12/17/1998 7:27:00 PM
From: Bill Brogan  Respond to of 19331
 
All: Look at this plug for IXC on my daily Individual Investor Online e-mail. Haven't gone to the linked story yet, but it sounds good!

--Bill

YOUR INDIVIDUAL INVESTOR DIVIDEND
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December 18, 1998

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GOOD BUY ON BANANAS!
Despite a recent pullback, Analyst Will Frankenhoff tells you why
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CLAIMS ON CLAIMSNET.COM
Steve Smith shares more juicy information on an Internet IPO gone
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DON'T BE THE NEXT SUCKER
Amazon.com shares will reach $400 according to CIBC Oppenheimer. The
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AMAZON'S BUBBLE WILL BURST
Says champ stock picker Jono Steinberg.
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DRIVING HIGHER
Winnebago is up 21% since Analyst Chris Bulkey wrote about it last
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MORE HEAT FROM SUN
Sun Microsystems stock is on a tear, doubling in the last couple
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With only a couple of weeks left in 1998, here are 15 year-end tax
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DON'T BUY THE .COM HYPE!
Tom Byrne says investing in companies that have tangible assets is far
wiser than buying '.com' stocks. He's bullish on IXC Communications,
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COMPAQ UP
Compaq Computer is up 67% over the last six weeks. Analyst Bob
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To: Steven R. Bergman who wrote (12887)12/17/1998 7:35:00 PM
From: Bill Brogan  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 19331
 
All: I went to that story about IXC on Individual Investor Online and it was so good I thought I better post it for those who might not get to it:

BID & ASK: Don't Buy the Hype, Buy Tangible Assets
Tom Byrne (12/17/98)

Internet stocks are going through the roof. Investors who got in early are crowing. Investors who are still on the sidelines are crying. But most of the surging Internet stocks are surging because they have '.com' after their name and very little else. Internet retailers and most search engine (or portal) companies have no sales, no earnings and no assets. Why not buy a company with some tangible assets you can hang your hat on?

IXC Communications

IXC Communications (NASDAQ: IIXC) is known as a 'carrier's carrier.' The company, whose initials IXC is short for 'interexchange carrier,' is located in Austin, Texas, the current hotbed for cutting-edge technology companies and sight of one of the greatest entrepreneurial booms of this century. A carrier's carrier provides long-distance telephone services to long-distance carriers that buy network capacity and services from IXC and resell them under their own brand names. In other words, IXC owns the pipe and long distance carriers pay rent to IXC to use the pipe.

Over the last two years, IXC has spent exorbitantly (to the tune of $1.2 billion) to expand its network - particularly its fiber-optic component - at lower-than-average industry costs through joint construction and capacity sales or swap arrangements with other carriers.

One of the things I look for in a company is a business plan that wins no matter what happens to the industry. IXC does not care who uses the pipe or who wins the telecom war or whether competitive local exchange carriers (CLECs) will eat into the telcos' or baby bells' business. No matter who uses the pipe or wins the telecom wars, they will have to pay IXC a 'rental' fee.

Strong Backbone

I refer to companies like IXC as backbone companies. IXC owns the actual fiber optic lines that carry voice and data traffic. The fiber optic lines are the backbone, and all types of carriers need to use them.

IXC is one of only six companies that operate coast-to-coast digital communications networks. Plus the company is looking to build its infrastructure outside the U.S., where there is considerably more opportunity for growth. Internationally, IXC is involved in joint ventures to build a fiber-optic route in Mexico and to provide communications services in 15 European cities. To throw in a wild card, IXC also owns 22% of PSINet (NASDAQ: PSIX), the largest independent Internet Service Provider in the U.S. and a builder of its own fiber-optic network.

IXC's stock has been whipsawed during the last two weeks. In the first week of December, the stock lost three points when the company announced that EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest Taxes Depreciation and Amortization) in the fourth quarter of 1998 will be hurt by several factors. Although IXC expects continued revenue growth in the fourth quarter, EBITDA will be adversely affected by a larger-than expected hike in SG&A (selling, general & administrative) expense, a $6 million increase in reserves for bad debts, and finally, a contract extension that will string out revenue over the life of the contract. IXC said, 'fourth quarter EBITDA will fall short of analysts' expectations, but the company expects that it should not decline below EBITDA in the third quarter (excluding non-recurring revenue/EBITDA from the fiber sale recorded in the third quarter).'

Gemini2000

The pressure on the stock from this announcement was short-lived. Last week, the stock bounced back up two points when IXC announced it had activated the first coast-to-coast, next generation Internet backbone network to carry both commercial and research community traffic. Named the Gemini2000, the fiber-optic network will eliminate Internet congestion and backlog by offering high-speed communications that are 100 to 1,000 times faster than today's Internet. The Gemini2000 Network is supported by technology from Cisco Systems (NASDAQ: CSCO), Newbridge Networks (NYSE: NN) and Nortel Networks (NYSE: NT).

IXC has $141 million in cash and nearly $1 billion in fixed assets, most of which is the fiber-optic network it has built. IXC has $1.5 billion in total assets or about $41 per share. Subtracting long-term debt of $483 million, or $13 per share, still leaves a breakup value of $28 per share, or $2.37 above the current stock price of $25.63. Something you can hang your hat on.



To: Steven R. Bergman who wrote (12887)12/17/1998 10:20:00 PM
From: Brian  Respond to of 19331
 
Steve/Sillen,

Interesting concept you mention. I was talking with some guys at work the other day about the same thing. The standard (ages old) switching systems like the Nortel DMS-250 and the DSC (Alcatel) 600E cannot, at the moment, convert a digital voice transmission and put it over an ATM network nor multiplex multiple voice calls over a single digital circuit. I'd like to think that some company is planning a system like this but currently the three large systems I know about (MCI, Sprint and Worldcom) do not do this. And being in one of these companies, know that they even have no plans for IP telephony (over their ATM network) for the next several years.

If DCI continues to install the Harris switching system, I think that it only supports PTS or SS7 inter-switch trunking (ie. no ATM). Hence, you're looking at the capacity restrictions that I showed in my previous message. Someone please correct me if I am wrong.

By the way, it's not as if the same circuit can't handle both packet data and digitized voice. The technology deficiency is on the back end of the switching systems where the trunking is tied in to the switch.

Great questions everyone. I like to see some technical stuff on this thread every once in a while and I can finally contribute a little my self on such topics.

Brian