*AV* -- Excerpts from RadarView to share with the community in the spirit of the Holiday season. You all know how to get in touch with me<GGG>.
OPENING COMMENTARY FOR DECEMBER 18, 1998 RadarView Vol 2-45
The DOW bounced back 85.22 points on Thursday and ended the session at 8875.82 on volume of 744M shares. The NASDAQ was up a manly 34.52 and finished the session at 2043.88 on volume of 797M shares. ON Thursday, given the political environment, I said to expect the worst and be glad if it doesn't occur. That was a winn win statement for me so I would like to go on record as stating that I truly believed the worst was going to happen and they response in the market on Thursday was NOT what I expected. There were too many factors that I felt played into the markets and it would have been foolhardy to try to anticipate what would occur. But it does highlight a point I would like to make. There is absolutely no need to participate in the market every single day nor is there any reason to have to be fully invested all the time. These sound like simplistic comments but you would be surprised how many people feel compelled to be trading everyday and to have a fully invested position at all times. I have been in this type of mode for the past few months trying to taking advantage of the activity in this sector. I tailored off a bit and have actually built up some cash positions. I am feeling a great deal of pressure to put all the cash to work and to be invested as much as possible. This past Tuesday, I rushed to some stocks that could have waited, given my view of Today, Triple Witching Friday. However, the proverbial ants in my pants had me leaping. I bring this to the forefront only because there are others reading this newsletter that might find themselves in a similar situation. Well, you are not alone. Other than being brain dead in LHSPF, I haven't done too much damage to myself and have actually prospered. However, the time has come to settle down for the holidays and to only jump at the real bargains. Of course, that is easy for me to say since I have already established some positions.
With today's Triple Witching Friday, the onslaught of corporate warnings we thought we would see, the impending impeachment proceedings, and the military action against Iraq, I am not going to take too many chances today. As far as "Blue Light Specials" are concerned, I really do not see many, if any. The following alphabetical list of stocks represent those companies that I might be considering given their respective closes. This is all subject to change with how the market opens and responds this morning. ALYD-ARTI-ASMLF-ASYT-CFMT-CYCH-CYMI-PAIR
I would also venture to say that actions taken this week have been well within a tight range of activity for those stocks. Minor volatility throughout the week allowed most of us to get "second chances" to act on investment possibilities. I think we are in the bottom part of the left side -right side part of the parabolic curve, relative to the pricing momentum of these stocks. This is good, if it turns out to be correct. I feel as if we are looking at the flat spot on the bottom of some of these curves, give or take a small percent. What also makes this real nice is the November Book to Bill for the Semiconductor Equipment Sector.
NORTH AMERICAN SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT INDUSTRY POSTS NOVEMBER 1998 BOOK-To-BILL RATIO OF 0.84 (Dec 17, 1998)
A book-to-bi1l of 0.84 means $84 in orders were received for each $100 worth of products shipped. Technology buys are certainly going ahead as planned in the Semiconductor Industry, as we have previously stated. This was re-iterated by SEMI president, Stanley Meyers. He did state that "However, keep in mind that current business levels for the equipment industry are running about half of 1997. Technology purchases alone will not return the equipment and materials industry to its former profitability. We certainly hope to get to the point where significant new capacity is needed before the year 2000." This also agrees with our comments that technology buys are coming in and that we still have to deal with capacity utilization issues prior to seeing an upturn for capacity related equipment orders.
Three month average shipments in November were $963 million. this figure is 15% above the October ‘98 level, but is 41% below the November ‘97 level. The Three month average bookings increased in November ‘98 to $805 Million, which is 29% above the October '98 level and 51% below the November ‘97 level.
The following table of the SEMI book-to-bill is a ration of 3-month moving average bookings to 3 month moving average shipments. Key point of interest is that the shipments looked to have finally turned a corner and are looking up. Booking may have bottomed out 3 months ago but it is the shipments that I am more concerned with. November's numbers are the first positive numbers I have seen in months. This is but one data point and I would be more inclined to feel real positive once the December numbers are reported.
BCST [68-1/2, +5 3/8] Earlier this week I stated "further weakness creates a decision point." Below 60 desired but a piece was taken at $62.50 on 12/15. WHOOPIE - that didn't take long , did it? No longer a stock to accumulate but rather a stock to put into the locked on Target Section again, starting with next issue.
Turner Classic Movies and Broadcast.com Team Up for Live Internet Broadcast Premiere of Casablanca biz.yahoo.com
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) was flat last Friday, lost ~4% on Monday, up ~3.4% on Tuesday, close down ~1.6% on Wednesday, and then closed up a dramatic 4.7% on Thursday by adding 15.29 points to the index, allowing the SOX to close at 339.98 for the day. CFMT is still my quizzical Book value and cash value stock much like ASYT and LRCX were when I first brought to the reader's attention. Both ASYT and LRCX were priced so close to stock price - cash value parity that it did not make sense. In both cases we were rewarded with some handsome gains. CFMT is positioned in the correct niche market within the industry sector that it has very few, if any, 500lb gorillas like NVLS, KLAC, AMAT, etc. as competitors. CFMT's cleaning technology is an enabling technology for the new advanced processing and device technologies that are being put into production today. CFMT is one company that could take off at any moment based on just a few new purchase orders being placed. See issue #43 for further details. The AMEX Internet Index (IIX) and AMEX Networking Index (NWX) finished up 2.3% and 3.0%, respectively.
Micron gamblers come up winners - By Brenon Daly, CBS MarketWatch 6:07 PM Dec 17, 1998 - (CBS.MW) – When the market closed on Tuesday there was heavy trading in Micron Technology (MU), particularly in the December 50 calls (MULJ). Nearly 5,000 of those contracts changed hands on Tuesday, closing off 1/8 to 9/16. On Thursday those same contracts are worth 2 7/8 -- or nearly six times their value on Tuesday. More than 6,300 contracts traded.
December 17, 8:00 pm EST - Jenoptik Infab Announces SMIF and Fab Automation Order From VLSI Technology - Agreement with Fab Automation Leader Targets 0.15-Micron Devices (Note: this is a competitor to ASYT) biz.yahoo.com
UBID [42-9/16, +5 5/8] - up $7.75 over past 2 days and has performed as expected. We reported the trading range had tightened up, the price hit bottom for entry consideration, and is now LOCKED ON TARGET with a 15% gain on Thurs. alone.
SIII[6-13/32, +1 3/8] - Waiting for Lawsuit results with Nvidia now. INTC issue seems to be resolved. Intel (INTC) and S3 (SIII) have agreed to end a feud over microprocessor patents and grant each other patent cross-licenses for 10 years, an accord that could help Intel with its antitrust problems. Moves to LOCKED ON TARGET section.
Dec 17, 8:00 am EST - S3 Announces 10-Year Cross Licensing Agreement With Intel - Intel to Purchase Warrants for S3 Shares - S3 to be an Intel AGP 4X Validation Partner biz.yahoo.com
REFR[9-3/16, +1 1/16] - Like the technology. refr-spd.com Looks as if it is traveled through the low part of its trading range. Up 1-11/16 in past 3 days. First major development has finally occurred.
Research Frontiers Incorporated Delivers SPD Film Emulsion Enabling Large Scale Production Of SPD Light Control Film for Smart Windows and Other Products - REFR Takes Significant Step Towards Commercialization biz.yahoo.com
LOCKED ON TARGET
A full description can be found in RadarViewâ Volume 2 Issue 27 and 31 for review.
VRSN (exited with 30% gain) verisign.com
MIPS[28, -5/8] - LLT set at 27
BCST[68-1/2, +5 3/8] - Prior 33% gain - Re-entry at $9.50 lower @ $62.50. This time around we are up 10% so far.
ETEC[36-15/16, +13/16] - Previous Exit at $38 for 32% gain. Chose not to re-enter.
NVLS[49-1/4, +3/4] - #1 LLT @$50 for profits. Re-entry at $47 Exited @ 56-1/2 for 20%.(#2) Re-entry at $49.50, $7 lower than previous exit.
UBID and SIII moves to this section tomorrow
|
