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Biotech / Medical : VVUS: VIVUS INC. (NASDAQ) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Frostman who wrote (17042)	12/18/1998 1:01:00 AM
From: VLAD	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23519

Frostman, I have a few theories. Perhaps there is already a verbal agreement but it will be based on how well the script numbers rebound based on the Viagra fears even without a sales force. I don't think a company would want to deal with a partnership officially until 1999 simply for fiscal accounting reasons etc. etc.. Perhaps Vivus and the probable partner are also waiting to see what the ACC has to say on January 1st. The potential partner may feel that they can make a lot more money(and pay Vivus more) stressing the safety issues but they first want it official as far as what the so called "experts" from the ACC have to say concerning Viagra. Unless a deal is signed Wilson really can't say anything solid or else Vivus will have another lawsuit to deal with. I think the most substantial statement was, "Although we are not prepared at this time to announce a partner(how can they if nothing is signed?) we have made significant progress in these negotiations." Admittedly there would be a lot of details and factors to work out such as 1)What about rights to Alibra since it will probably more or less replace MUSE when approved? 2)What guarantees does Vivus have that the partner will aggressively market MUSE? 3)How many years will this "partnership" agreement last ie will Vivus eventually take over the rights to MUSE as they will with Astra and Janssen? 4)What about rights to Japan (the second largest potential market) as a bargaining chip? I believe that Vivus may have something close to done with either Astra or JNJ. Don't forget that if they decide to play hardball and not give Vivus a reasonable deal then in another year when Alibra is approved, Vivus can just sign another deal with another international pharma in the same territory and make either Janssen or Astra suffer. I think the best route would be for Vivus to sell itself in parts to various interests but only if the price is reasonable (ie 15 or more). There is more value in Vivus in parts than as a whole since there are multiple large pharma interests at stake. Vivus can sell out all rights to MUSE and Alibra to Astra for its territory and Janssen for its territory and can do the same to the highest bidder for the US and Japan. I don't think that $3.50 to $4.00/share is unreasonable for each of the 4 territories if it includes all future rights to the intraurethral delivery system. Each company involved can then do their own R&D to further develope drugs for incontinence and premature ejaculation etc... Exclussive rights to gene therapy is another thing they can sell as a piece of the Vivus pie. As far as the plan currently for selling Muse goes I think it is obvious that it will be the status quo until Vivus signs a partner. In the mean time I think Vivus should throw another round of at least literature at the PCPs concerning MUSE. Perhaps a large colored pamphlet with words such as "A SAFER LOCAL ALTERNATIVE TO VIAGRA" plastered across the front to catch the PCP's(or office manager's)attention. This would not be costly and Vivus can just have their toll free number available to answer questions or send a video to any doctor that now feels more comfortable treating ED since Viagra became available.