Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (33074)	12/17/1998 11:30:00 PM
From: dj8000	Respond to of 95453

With respect to oil/OSX, it's very volatile. up 10% one day, and down 10% next day. Actually this is very similar to general market 2 month ago during market bottom: up several hundred points one day, and down several hundred next day. And I heard from radio on my drive home that this kind of volatile market happened before and these volatility are very often the indication of a major BOTTOM. This proved to be true for general market again. So, I suspect the volatility in oil/OSX may be the indication of a major bottom. DJ

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (33074)	12/17/1998 11:33:00 PM
From: Elmer	Respond to of 95453

<The theories that Saudi Arabia is making some grand play on grabbing market share via flooding the market with cheap crude is ludicrous; simply not even possible. They are in dire straits, could not do it if they wanted to; more importantly - a Global crude war, would not and could not be tolerated, as the International financial reprecussions would be too extreme and could lead to a collapse of not only a few Countries, or Currencies , but the International Banking Community as well.> I agree Slider. FWIW, The Saudi's also deny the low price theory in a Reuter's article: Saudi Oil Minister Ali-Naimi told reporters before the meeting that suggestions his country was pursuing a deliberate policy of low prices to squeeze higher-cost producers were completely wide of the mark. ''That's nonsense. How can reasonable people come to that conclusion,'' he said. ''We want stable markets. We want reasonable prices for us and the marginal producers.''

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (33074)	12/17/1998 11:45:00 PM
From: Mike from La.	Respond to of 95453

Slider, I agree that the market is using every opportunity for negative spin. The spin on the Madrid meeting is that they they did not promise production cuts. There was never any hope that they would. If OPEC moves, it will be all of OPEC, not just three countries. My guess is that the purpose of the meeting was to get Mexico, and especially Venezuela, to agree to go along with future cuts. Saudi was looking to see if Venezuela's new president was going to be true to his word to comply with past promises, and work with OPEC in the future, giving up its disasterous market share battle. Mexico is also involved in a fight for the US market. I hope that the Saudi's comment that the meeting was "very successful" means that they have decided to stop fighting each other, and just divide the US market up in an orderly, and mutually beneficial manner. If that was the result, the next step will be to go back to the other OPEC countries and make the deal to cut production. I don't know if Iran will still be a problem, but I would guess that Iran wants higher prices as much as anyone. They were the most vocal critics of the 10% increase early this year, (which I still believe was the Saudi's plan to get OPEC back in line). We need to watch now for another OPEC get together. Mike from La. P.S. I throw in my vote to take partisan politics some where else.

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (33074)	12/18/1998 12:20:00 AM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95453

Slider, you are right to make up your own mind without help from the media. I rummaged through some newspaper clippings today and found a Nov 11.97 IBD article on the drillers. Under OUTLOOK it said "Stable prices, firm demand and ever lower finding costs are giving producers ample reason to seek the reserves they'll need to meet expected demand and replace or bolster stocks". Under RISKS the only item was "ensuring drillers have adequate crews to staff rigs." At the time of publication OSX was just beginning to descend from the peak. I even remember the article being discussed here [with approval]. On Nov 8.1997 > IBD weekend review 24 of the 28 stocks in the graphic review were from this sector.< Message 2672202 Nov 10.1997: Thean got suspicious Message 2687549 Nov 11.1997 >Guest analyst on CNBC Taking Stock just said that they have a target price on NBR of $75-$80, that its earnings should get to $3.15 (I think). Very positive comments like "through the roof." < Message 2693748 Nov 9.1997 Kevin Simpson from Merryl Lynch (who ever that is) was on Fox News Sat talking about Oil stocks: Drillers are the palce to be. Likes HAL short-term and NE for 18 months. He also mentioned Santa Fe International. Message 2679249 Nov 8.1997 Excitement!! A must reading for everyone. Monday's IBD industry snapshot is on the oil drillers. Entirely positive article excellently written which should provide a renewed push to oil drillers on Monday. Interesting upside--overbuilding of offshore fleet not likely over next five years. Interesting downside--finding adequate staffing for rigs. Message 2673371 Just a few days later OSX started its descend Slider, we could do worse than go back and read those Nov.'97 posts as a warning that the media are not here to help us profit! Gottfried I bought some SLB on 12/4/98 and am looking to add more soon.

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (33074)	12/18/1998 7:17:00 AM
From: Harold S.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Does anyone know what the top oil service mutual funds are?? I would really appreciate it.

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (33074)	12/18/1998 7:44:00 AM
From: Crimson Ghost	Respond to of 95453

Slider; To be clear about my thinking. I agree there is very little downside risk here and that risk/reward ratios are extraordinary. But none of us can be sure when the next big move will get underway. Depressed stock groups often have to go through a long basing period before a major recovery gets underway. As for oil prices, the majors are using expectations of low prices for a long time as the key justification for the current merger wave. What is your take on this? Are they lying? Or do they really beleive what they are saying about the oil price outlook?