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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Brian Malloy who wrote (30397)	12/18/1998 10:58:00 AM
From: Rob S.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

I don't have a link for but I'm sure that you have heard this common bit of anecdotal wisdom talked about repeatedly on the financial news programs and Internet threads. It goes along with the "greater fool" theory - when every fool is already into something that is the time to get out. You don't have to wait for every last fool to join the parade, it's a matter of momentum: When the exposure of a stock is already at "maximum reach" in the available market, then a shift in momentum is likely to occur. The brokerages have been increasing their margin requirements or curtailing the ability to trade certain Internet stocks altogether. Many of the Internet stocks are going to split after millions more shares are sold off by insiders and acquisition distributions. This has created a very unusual set of circumstances: a "long squeeze" in which margined longs are called in to sell their stock as the price moves down. If that happens it probably won't until after the split and perhaps not until the Spring. A major pullback in Amazon is likely to happen. But I still expect the stock to ride the growth in Internet ecommerce so a 30% pull back is unlikely to last for more than a few months. The drop in the stock to 80 or so won't happen for a couple of years, IMO. In the short term the price will be held up by great sales growth this quarter. But I think the reality of that growth will be no better than what people already expect.