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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Smooth Drive who wrote (2235)	12/20/1998 8:01:00 PM
From: Smooth Drive	Respond to of 99985

WEEKEND LOOK BACK Some week – the DOW INDUSTRIALS closed up 27.81 points (.31%) at 8903.63 and 87.87 points or .93% from a week-ago. The 85% rule held and the DJIA did have a higher high on Friday than on Thursday. As a matter of fact, on Thursday it was suggested that there was also an 85% chance of higher highs in the DJTA, DJUT, S&P500 and NAZ -- and they all did have higher highs. The TRANSPORTS closed up 38.40 points at 3009.18 (1.29%) and 79.53 points (2.71%) for the week. UTILITIES were up 1.65 points (.53%) for the day and 8.87 points (2.91%) for the week. The NYSE COMPOSITE closed up 1.92 (.34%) and 7.25 points (1.28%) for the week. The S&P 500 was up 8.05 points (.68%) for the day and 21.57 points (1.85%) for the week. It has an 85% chance of a higher high tomorrow. Lastly, the NAZ closed up very strong at 42.26 points (2.07%) and 56.83 points (2.80%) for the week. It too has an 85% chance of a higher high tomorrow. OVERBOUGHT/OVERSOLD (OB/OS) This is a daily calculated OB/OS indicator calculated on my understanding of how Birinyi calculates his. It uses a 50 DEMA and looks back one year at the highest and lowest, as a percent, that a stock or index has traded above or below its 50 DEMA. Thus, creating a so called range of OB/OS. (Also listed are a few moving averages.) 50 OVER OVER INDEX CLOSE BOTTOM DEMA TOP SOLD BOUGHT DJIA 8903.63 8227.60 8850.86 9371.58 0.00% 10.13% DJTA 3009.04 2693.81 2939.03 3188.91 0.00% 28.02% DJUA 313.29 295.17 309.98 321.26 0.00% 29.35% NYSE 572.07 530.66 567.85 593.65 0.00% 16.35% S&P 1188.03 1090.08 1174.42 1232.50 0.00% 23.44% NAZ 2086.14 1848.90 2035.82 2159.47 0.00% 40.69% 52 52 WEEK WEEK 5 13 40 50 INDEX LOW HIGH CLOSE DEMA DEMA DEMA DEMA DJIA 7379.70 9457.95 8903.63 8866.26 8856.35 8851.37 8850.86 DJTA 2260.24 3735.38 3009.04 2956.40 2945.22 2939.60 2939.03 DJUA 259.51 323.65 313.29 310.62 310.21 310.00 309.98 NYSE 462.69 601.76 572.07 568.84 568.20 567.88 567.85 S&P 912.83 1193.53 1188.03 1177.64 1175.57 1174.52 1174.42 NAZ 1343.87 2086.14 2086.14 2047.99 2040.16 2036.23 2035.82 The three P&F index charts I've been updating on this thread all showed action Friday. Here's the results: THE DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE 20 X 60 9360 X * 9340 X O X * 9320 X O X O * 9300 X O X O * 9280 X O X O * 9260 X O O * 9240 X O * 9220 X O * 9200 X O * 9180 X O * < Bearish Resistance Line 9160 X O 9140 X O 9120 X O X 9100 X O X O 9080 X X O X O 9060 X O X O X O X X 9040 X O X O O X O X O X 9020 X O X O X O X O X O 9000 X O O X O X O X O 8980 X * O O X O O 8960 X * O X * O < Double Bottom Sell Signal 8940 X * O X * O 8920 X * O X O 8900 X * O X O X 8880 X * O O X * < Bearish Support Line 8860 X * O X 8840 X * O X 8820 * O X 8800 * O X 8780 * O X 8760 Bearish Support Line > * O X 8740 O X + < Short Term Uptrend Line 8720 O X + 8700 O + 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 -Double Bottom Sell Signals at 6,2940,11/30/98; 8,9020,12/1/98; 10,8960,12/4/98; 14,8860,12/10/98; and reversed up on 15,8760,12/15/98. -Long term bullish (trading above its Bullish Support Line) and short term bearish (on a sell signal). -Lower tops and lower bottoms depicts overall weakness. Friday's Action: Rose 2 boxes from 8860 to 8900. It's sitting right on a Bearish Support Line. You can see old horizontal support at 8980 which can now provide some resistance. Obvious horizontal resistance at 9040 and 9060. DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE - 50 X 150 * 9350 X * 9300 X O * 9250 X O * < Bearish Res. Line 9200 X O 9150 X O 9100 X O * 9050 X O X * 9000 X O X O * < S/T Downtrend Line 8950 X O X O 8900 X O O X 8850 X * O X 8800 X * O X 8750 X + O X 8700 X + O * < Bearish Support Line 8650 X 8600 O X X 8550 O X O X 8500 O + X O X + < Short Term Uptrend Line 8450 O Bullish Res. Line> + X O X + 8400 O + X O X + 8350 O + X O + 8300 O + X + 8250 O + X 8200 O + X 8150 O + X X X 8100 O + X O X O X 8050 O + X X O X O X 8000 O + X X O X O X O X 7950 O + X O X O X O O X 7900 O X X O X O X O X 7850 O X O X O X O X O X 7800 O X O X O X O X O X X 7750 O X O X O X O O X O X + < Bullish Support Line 7700 O X O X O X O X O X + 7650 O X O X O X O O X + 7600 O X O X O O X + 7550 O O O X + 7500 O + + 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 -Double Bottom Sell Signal at 19,8850,12/10/98. Reversed back up at 20,8850,11/17/98. -Long term bullish (trading above Bullish Support Line) and short term bearish (on a sell signal). -Next support at the Short Term Uptrend Line at 8500 and then the previous horizontal support at 8350. Friday's Action: Added on 1 box 8900. Possible resistance from the previous bottom at 8900 and then the Short Term Downtrend Line at 9000. THE NAZ - 4 X 12 2088 2084 X 2080 X 2076 X 2072 X 2068 X 2064 X 2060 X 2056 X 2052 * X < Spread Double Top Buy Signal 2048 X * X 2044 X O * X 2040 X O * X 2036 X O X 2032 X O * X < Double Top Bug Signal 2028 X O X * X 2024 X O X O X 2020 X O X O X * < Short Term Downtrend Line 2016 X X O O X 2012 X O X O X 2008 X O + X O X 2004 X O + X O X 2000 X O X X O X 1996 X O X O X O X 1992 X O X O X O X 1988 X O X O X O X 1984 X O X O X O X 1980 X O X O X O X + < Intermediate Term Uptrend Line 1976 X O X O X O X + 1972 X O X O X O X 1968 X O X O X O 1964 X O X O X + 1960 X O X O X + 1956 X O X O + 1952 X O + + 1948 X + 1944 X 1940 X 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 -Double Top Buy Signal at 5,2004,12/7/98; Double Bottom Sell Signal at 8,2012,12/14/98; Reversed up 9,2012,12/15/98; Double Top Buy Signal at 9,2032,12/18/98. -Long term bullish(trading above its Bullish Support Line) and short term bullish (currently on a buy signal). -Notice the Bullish Triangle. The first column of X's found resistance at 2016 and then reversed down and from then on the tops got lower and the bottoms higher until the Double Top Bug Signal at 2004. A Bullish Triangle requires at least 5 columns. Friday's Action: Wow! Went up 11 boxes and slammed through the previous high like (pick your favorite running back). Closed at a new 52 week high. Has an incomplete bullish price objective (it's incomplete until such time as a reversal down occurs) of 2316. As this is not an "Off the bottom" price objective, I wouldn't put much stock in that elevated number right now however. Guess we'll see. Take care, Eric