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Technology Stocks : eBay - Superb Internet Business Model -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Doug Fowler who wrote (1111)	12/18/1998 11:04:00 AM
From: Ricky Rydell	Respond to of 7772

Yes. Would expect ebay to pull back of at least 600K auctions or so...I am in retail and mail order retail always pulls back early. It always did for me. Then comes the massive over the counter slump, the desire to keep low inventories for tax purposes, etc etc. This may not be ebay, but it is what rules all markets in this country. Before ebay was an exclusive collectors site which you met people that were looking for things for years, only to go bananas when they found them on ebay. So they were willing to buy any time, any place. Eventually the novelty does wear off. I speak from a buyer/seller's experience. Now a chunk or revenue is coming from the furby and beenie general buying public and those wanting to make a fast buck and want a guarantee on their commodities. This is retail during the holidays, so it will now behave like retail during the holidays. Thus the words "Going Public". I think the auction count isn't near bottom yet. It'll pull back to it's original held up by the numbers of those who have been using it for the past couple of years. Ebay still has a bright future, and one day next year, economy permitting, I would not be surprised to see 1,750,000 or even 2,000,000 on it wiht or without advretising. However, most of those auctions are going to be home trinkets and retail wanna-bees. The core will still hold them up.

To: Doug Fowler who wrote (1111)	1/1/1999 8:36:00 PM
From: Doug Fowler	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 7772

eBay auction count update: Active auctions as of January 1,,,,,,,,,,1,208,832 Active auctions as of December 18,,,,,,,871,225 Active auctions as of December 11,,,,1,032,073 Active auctions as of December 4,,,,,,1,125,353 Active auctions as of November 27,,,,,,,998,481 Active auctions as of November 20,,,,,,,980,435 Actuve auctions as of November 13,,,,,,942,949 Active auctions as of November 6,,,,,,,,,901,626 Active auctions as of October 30,,,,,,,,,,861,802 Active auctions as of October 23,,,,,,,,,,832,486 Active auctions as of October 9 ,,,,,,,,,,,794,279 Active auctions as of October 2 ,,,,,,,,,,,762,731 Active auctions as of September 25,,,,,,722,745 Active auctions as of September 18,,,,,,708,964 Active auctions as of September 11,,,,,,687,649 Active auctions as of September 4,,,,,,,,645,491 Active auctions as of August 28, 1998: 649,169 Active auctions as of August 21, 1998: 625,810 Active auctions as of August 14, 1998: 612,893 Growth from 13 weeks (one quarter) ago: 58.5 percent This is a very good recovery for eBay, but it is VERY important to note that many of these auctions are now 14 day auctions, whereas all former eBay auction counts represented 7 day or shorter auctions. I wouldn't be surprised if the addition of these 14 day auctions has inflated the growth by 10 percent or more. However, in the future, we will just need to look at incremental growth, and in 13 weeks, the quarterly growth rates will be more meaningful. I am predicting that eBay did between $18M and $19M in revenues in the latest quarter.