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Technology Stocks : Jabil Circuit (JBL) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ccryder who wrote (4797)	12/18/1998 10:19:00 AM
From: rich evans	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6317

Ccryder, Yes I agree that the ECMs spread the manufacturing risk. But your post hits the nail, as to the question when the growth will slow down. With all these ECM companies growing at 30% a year it will not take along under Paul's rule of 75 formula for overcapacity and a slowdown IMO. So looking out far in the future and compounding those growth rates ,earnings and PEs is risky business. Also the OEMs will retain some of their manufacturing surely. And the demand side for all these products could hit a wall or decrease .And a loss of a large contract by a ECM seems to have a serious effect on its stock price. So if the economy slows or transitions/disruptions occur as we witnessed in 98 these stocks can go down bigtime. So I guess I am getting a little cautious and lightening and diversifying because their PEs seem to be close to their present growth. I guess that was the point of my somewhat flippant post to Paul K. Rich