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Technology Stocks : eBay - Superb Internet Business Model -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robert Rose who wrote (1112)	12/18/1998 5:17:00 PM
From: Doug Fowler	Respond to of 7772

Robert: Call me old-fashioned, but when someone says "Forget about fundamentals", I run for the hills. Yes, I have been saying eBay was overvalued since 80. No, I don't kick myself every morning because I sold at 50. There are plenty of other reasons to kick myself <g>. The fact is, if I had kept eBay, I would have sold it by now. Sure, I would have loved to have bought a bunch at 25 and sold at 250. Who wouldn't? But I could say that about a lot of stocks, especially Microsoft. The funny thing is that everyone knows this (and many other) net stocks are way overvalued. They all know there will be a big bust. Yet, these big busts come when they are LEAST expected. I agree that eBay will beat estimates this quarter, because the analysts have been sandbagging. I expect revenues will be about $18M, maybe as much as $19M. Annualized, that means eBay trades at a price to sales ratio of 125. By contrast, I believe that Microsoft's price to sales ratio has never been higher than 20. At a price to sales ratio of 20, eBay would trade at about $40 per share.