To: brad greene who wrote (4091 ) 12/21/1998 10:47:00 PM From: David Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 4676
Has NRID fallen into the hands of vultures? I mean, this thread is quiet, IDX is quiet, we have nothing better to do, right? Here's the thesis: Look at the PR link in post 4091 and start going through the arithmetic. The new owners paid $2 million and in return got 9,055,848 shares of stock and control of the company. (According to my calculations, they already owned 666,667 shares before this deal.) In other words, in addition to majority interest, they paid 22 cents a share at a time when the stock was selling for 62.5 cents a share. Furthermore, they and existing stockholders give out 100,000 62.5 cent warrants to Clearwater to make them go away. In return, the existing stockholders get: (1) a quick runup in the stock price and an opportunity to sell (but I assume Sheldon, Bob, etc., are still in -- so we don't have to include this one); (2) the elimination of the Clearwater deal; (3) the promise that the new shares cannot be sold in the US; and (4) the hope that NRID will have time to hang on until the biometrics market arrives to save the company. Now, I'm no expert on this -- and I'm sure you will correct me if I'm wrong -- but what is stopping these new guys from selling stock to foreign ownership just as long as the price stays above twenty two cents a share? True, you don't face more dilution a la Clearwater, but this latest deal is pretty darn dilutive, and has the potential to drive down the stock price again and, I think, for the last time. Because if the new owners are not interested in the long term health and well being of the existing stockholders, but are only in it to skim some more money out of this operation (and that is my thesis here, please let me know if you agree) . . . then they just need to find new believers offshore or in Canada. How many shares do they need to sell at $1 or so to recoup their investment? Not all that many. That would take care of benefits (3) and (4). We'll know pretty quickly after January 1.