To: Lee who wrote (85976 ) 12/18/1998 10:52:00 AM From: Mohan Marette Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 176387
Report: Fed to Cut Rates Again in 1999 Hi Lee: Here is another one them forecasts regarding what 1999 will look like,will be interesting to see if any of it will come true. =====================================(Source:MarketWire) 8.10 a.m. ET (1310 GMT) December 18, 1998 LOS ANGELES — The U.S. Federal Reserve Board will cut a key interest rate by an additional 50 basis points in 1999 in order to boost sagging consumer activity, according to a forecast report released Friday. The quarterly report, issued by economists at the Anderson School at the University of California, Los Angeles, said current consumer exuberance will spill over into 1999 but will not last indefinitely, particularly because consumers are financing their buying sprees out of their stock market gains. "The ongoing roller coaster movement in the stock market bodes ill for this type of activity and will also impact... business confidence negatively," the report said. Expected lower consumption and weaker investment activity will help soften the economy, with real U.S. GDP growth slowing to 2.5 percent in 1999 from an expected 3.7 percent growth rate this year, the report said. To mitigate the effects of the slowdown, the Fed will cut the Fed Funds Rate by another 50 basis points to 4.25 percent by the middle of 1999. "The Fed has shown its cards regarding what it would do to sustain this expansion and to dispel investor nervousness by already cutting interest rates 75 basis points this fall," the report said. "The same sentiment will again make the Fed buy some more slowdown insurance by cutting interest rates another 50 basis points by the middle of next year," the report said. Accompanying the expected slowdown in GDP growth will be an increase in joblessness, with the unemployment rate rising to 5.1 percent by mid-1999 from the November rate of 4.4 percent. Inflation was expected to remain low, thanks to depressed energy prices. The report said the consumer price index would rise slightly to 2.1 percent in 1999 from 1.6 percent in 1998. The authors of the report, Larry Kimbell and Rajeev Dhawan, said the 30-year bond rate would drop to 5.3 percent in 1999 from 5.6 percent in 1998.