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To: Greg Thornton who wrote (27706)	12/18/1998 11:40:00 AM
From: Quan Nguyen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36349

ADSL Will Lead Cable Modems in Broadband Access, According to Allied Business Intelligence, Inc. OYSTER BAY, N.Y., Dec. 18 /PRNewswire/ -- ADSL is expected to capture 37% of the market for US broadband subscribers in 2004, beating Cable Modem's projected 26% share. ADSL's share will rise 31% by year-end 2004, up from 6% in 1999. The total market for broadband subscribers in the US is expected to surge to 21 million at year-end 2004 from 4.2 million in 1999. ADSL's leading position in 2004 is a result of the G.Lite initiative. The standard overcomes hurdles that limited widespread consumer adoption of ADSL. As a result, ADSL is expected to lead cable modems in subscribers in 2004. ISDN's share is expected to plummet from 74% in 1999 to 17% in 2004 This information is the result of ABI's annual study on the Broadband Marketplace. The study, ''Broadband Delivery in the Local Loop: 1999'' will be released in January. There are over 350,000 cable modem subscribers today but penetration remains low. Fewer than 5% of all homes passed with cable modem ready plant today subscribe, pushing the cost of plant over the $5,000 per subscriber mark. Growth is expected to be brisk, and cable modem operators are anticipated to account for 26% of broadband subscribers in the US in 2004. But penetration of the service is not expected to pass 10% until late 2003 or 2004. By contrast fiber penetration remains high but accessibility is low. Fewer than 1% of all US lines use FTTH or FTTC, leaving a vast market for other technologies. Providers of 38 GHz service are addressing this segment -- commercial buildings that lack fiber drops -- with focused marketing and vast spectrum. However, access to end users represents a relatively small portion of the millimeter radio business. Fewer than 10% of millimeter wave radios sold are used to provide access to end-users. LMDS operators are pursuing the same segment as 38 GHz providers but their response continues to be slowed by market uncertainty, a lack of standards and limited equipment. At the same time, expensive CPE is limiting the ability of LMDS operators to make true inroads into the residential sector; LMDS is anticipated to represent 11% of total US broadband subscribers in 2004. Another wireless technology, satellite, is also progressing slowly. The merger of Teledesic and Celestri has added a breath of credibility to satellite delivery but operators still have many technical hurdles to overcome, particularly high cost of CPE equipment. Overall, satellite systems are expected to account for 7% of total subscribers to broadband services in 2004. Allied Business Intelligence, Inc. is an Oyster Bay, NY-based technology research think-tank specializing in communications and emerging technology markets. ABI publishes strategic research on the broadband, wireless and electronics industries as well as findings on new technology-driven markets such as home, automation, human-machine interface systems, and intelligent transportation systems. Details of these studies can be found at alliedworld.com. Or call 516-624-3113 for more info. SOURCE: Allied Business Intelligence, Inc. biz.yahoo.com QN