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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (39859)	12/18/1998 11:13:00 AM
From: accountclosed	Respond to of 132070

some posters on this thread have been going to local stores and giving anecdotal reports to the thread.

To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (39859)	12/18/1998 8:32:00 PM
From: Earlie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Hi Nadine: To get this kind of info, you have to have spent several years criss-crossing the country to build up a big contact network within the industry. I've got sores on my saddle sores from it and I've piled up several thousand hours of left seat time in beloved small airplanes doing it. (g) I still do more of it than I really need to but I enjoy "grunt" work, which is exactly what it is. (g) I also try to spend a great deal of time with the engineering types in the industry who are honest and also knowledgeable. They know what is going on in their own companies as well as what is going on in their industries. They know the strengths and weaknesses of their competitors. From my point of view, an hour with an engineer, is worth a week with a CEO or CFO. That's why I rarely spend time with CFOs or CEOs, except when they call me up to tell me what a jerk I am (as happened last week with respect to a very large but unmentionable company that was perturbed about a certain article that was critical of their accounting) (g) Incidentally, this is stuff that anybody can do. Go visit a few stores or VARs and talk to the sales people. Ask them to compare this year with past years, etc. Compare prices now with a year or two ago, compare inventory levels, etc. It isn't rocket science, and what is going on in your area, is probably similar to most other areas. It does make sense to visit stores in a variety of economic levels to get a decent picture. In a normal market, CPQ would have been driven down into the single digits, both on an actual earnings basis (take a look at the year-over year numbers) and also for the outright lying that took place last year (with respect to "channel stuffing"). I warned investors not to short CPQ, but my warning related only to the fact that they conjured up the biggest, most fraudulent "writedown" ($5.0 billion) in history when they acquired DEC. That gave them the accounting room to play games for the next 2-3 quarters. CPQ's stock price has nothing to do with the actual business they are doing or the tiny profits (???) they are making,....but of course the same can be said for many other PC/semi companies. Incidentally, last year, Fred Hickey, MB, myself, and a few others took pains to point out the channel stuffing, and its consequences. CPQ's exalted leader went out of his way to deny this at several public events. Later, all of the distributors came out and provided the details of just how big and bad the "stuff" had been. Dear old Eck had egg all over his face and tie, and deserved it. Best, Earlie