To: Gregg Powers who wrote (19989 ) 12/18/1998 12:01:00 PM From: tero kuittinen Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 152472
What confuses me here is that most of these business journalists and telecom experts doubting Qualcomm are American. It seems that the majority of US commentators have drawn the conclusion that W-CDMA will go forward and that Qualcomm is being "difficult" or "unreasonable". Why are American experts siding against an American company if Qualcomm's position is really impregnable? Apparently Wall Street is also siding with W-CDMA, judging from stock price movements that are triggered by W-CDMA-related news. OK, let's assume that Ericsson is an evil, malignant cancer eating at the heart of the global mobile telecom industry (I like doing that). I just have a hard time believing that a Swedish company can so thoroughly bamboozle Wall Street if they don't have a leg to stand on. Actually, some of the claims Qualcomm has made about IS-95 have been kind of overoptimistic. When they chose IS-95 I doubt that the US operators foresaw that in 1999 rival digital standard phones would have superior technological specs. I doubt that they realized how hard it would be to incorporate data functions like short messaging and e-mail into CDMA phones. I don't think that the CDMA community has been entirely honest in their global projections, either - I have not seen them correct the projections that were based on CDMA's universal acceptance in China - something that is obviously not going to happen. So to some extent, CDMA has been a mild let-down. More to the point, Qualcomm's strategy of alienating just about everybody is making them seem a little short-sighted. A couple of years ago China, Japan, Korea and North America were all either potentially indifferent or hostile towards W-CDMA. All these countries have now a vested interest in W-CDMA, to different degrees. The way W-CDMA alliance has been able to cobble together global momentum is a testament to their shrewd political instincts. I think this matters. Tero