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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Katherine Derbyshire who wrote (7435)	12/18/1998 2:43:00 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Katherine, From the following statement, I suspect that there may be times when you're mathematically challenged. ;-) If the BtB is below 1, the industry is shrinking. e.g. If next month's BtB was 0.75, would you automatically make the above statement. What if that BtB was the result of $3B book and $4B Billings. Personally, I don't think any conclusions can be reliably made from a 3 month seasonally adjusted rolling average which will be adjusted as more information is reported during at least the next 2 months. However, it's safe to observe that both Bookings and Billings have resumed their uptrend. A BtB below one means backlog is being consumed. A BTB above one means that Backlog is being increased and may also mean that lead times are lengthening (if it stays sufficiently above 1 long enough). FWIW, Ian.

To: Katherine Derbyshire who wrote (7435)	12/18/1998 3:59:00 PM
From: Clarksterh	Respond to of 10921

Katherine - If the BtB is below 1, the industry is shrinking. Not so. It just means that the SEMI companies are eating into backlog. The real question is whether orders are growing fast enough that they can maintain their current revenue rates, and given that orders seem to be growing at 30% per month, it is a good bet that they can. (i.e. shipments were only 20% above orders, which is less than 1 months growth in orders). Clark

To: Katherine Derbyshire who wrote (7435)	12/18/1998 4:01:00 PM
From: Math Junkie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Re: <<If the BtB is below 1, the industry is shrinking.>> Au contraire, mon ami, I insist that the glass is half-full! Bookings are up 67% from September to November, and are up two months in a row. The fact that, as Ian said, companies are still consuming backlog matters little, IMO. If they only produced as much as they got orders for at times like this, that would mean that they would get even further behind when business really gets going. Personally, I would be just as happy if they would forget this ratio business, and just report bookings and billings.