To: Lee who wrote (86050 ) 12/21/1998 10:15:00 AM From: Mohan Marette Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 176387
<Japanese Economy> Wow!!!!!!! Good morning Lee: Get a load of this,unbelievable, I see light at the end of the tunnel and it ain't from no oncoming train either.<vbg> ======================================Japan Sets Giant Budget to Boost Economy 7.38 a.m. ET (1238 GMT) December 21, 1998 TOKYO — Japan Monday outlined its biggest budget ever for the coming fiscal year, which aims to stimulate the economy out of its long recession but whose record bond issuance will drag the nation even deeper into debt. The Finance Ministry issued an 81.86 trillion yen ($711 billion) draft budget for the fiscal year starting next April, up 5.4 percent from the initial budget for this fiscal year, which ends on March 31. The budget, which will be topped up with some 50 billion yen in extra spending for various ministries before being ratified Friday as the official government draft, aims to help the economy achieve the 0.5 percent fiscal 1999/2000 economic growth promised by Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi. "For the time being, we will support the economy with public demand and then smoothly pass the baton to private-demand-led economic growth through a recovery in personal consumption," Obuchi told an economic advisory panel. But many economists fret that the huge increase in debt to finance the government's public works and tax cuts will further push up Japan's long-term interest rates, thus undermining the very stimulus that the spending is meant to generate. To pay for the budget, which the government will submit to parliament in January, the government will float a record 71.13 trillion yen in bonds, including 31.05 trillion yen in fresh bond issuance, lifting bond issuance to 37.9 percent of budget revenue. That is a record high bond reliance for an initial budget — up from 20 percent in this year's initial budget — but bonds have since swelled to 38.6 percent of revenue with the three extra budgets the government has crafted this fiscal year in an attempt to pull the economy out of its worst postwar recession. Excluding subsidies to local governments, recession and tax cut-starved revenues barely equal the fresh bond issuance. "The central government is issuing roughly the same amount of debt that it is getting in revenue," one official said. "If this was an ordinary household, it would be outrageous." The Finance Ministry forecast the general government deficit, excluding the social security account, would be 9.2 percent of gross domestic product in the next fiscal year. Given that extra budgets have brought this fiscal year's total spending to some 88 trillion yen, economists and financial markets already assume the government must craft supplementary budgets for the coming year just to stay even. Private-sector economists are virtually unanimous in saying the target cannot be hit by measures already taken. Concern about an overflow of supply in the bond market has recently pushed down prices, forcing yields up. Long-term interest rates spiked higher Monday, partly on the government's announcement that it would dump 61 trillion yen of the next fiscal year's bond issuance on the market. But Finance Minister Kiichi Miyazawa told reporters: "I'm not very concerned about the possibility of the government issuing bonds and crowding out private fund demand." Miyazawa said, though, that once the economy was on a sustainable recovery track, the government would have to tackle the issue of fiscal reform. For the time being, the priority is clearly on spending. Discretionary spending, which excludes debt-servicing and other mandatory payments, came to 46.9 trillion yen, a rise of 5.3 percent over this year's initial budget. Central to the budget was provision for tax cuts and an increase in public works spending. Some 9.4 trillion yen in tax cuts is penciled in for next business year, most of which will be borne by the central government, the Finance Ministry said. Spending on public works projects provided for in the budget grew five percent to 9.4 trillion yen over the initial budget for this fiscal year and rises 10.5 percent if provisional spending for emergencies normally allowed by law is included. Finance Ministry officials said that as most of the public works spending in the third supplementary budget for this fiscal year was still to come, actual spending implemented in 1999/2000 would also grow at least 10 percent from an estimated 11.4 trillion yen in 1998/99. This estimate does not include the provisional spending for emergencies. Defense spending is to be cut 0.2 percent to 4.9 trillion yen, while spending on social welfare is to rise 8.4 percent to 16 trillion yen.