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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John L. who wrote (27275)	12/18/1998 6:40:00 PM
From: Clarksterh	Respond to of 70976

John - At the rate orders are currently growing (30% per month), within 1 month they will be getting more orders than they just shipped last month. Yes, they are eating into backlog, but it is a nit at the current rates of growth. In contrast the internet stocks are looking out 3 to 5 years. Clark PS Obviously this growth cannot continue for very long, but the point is that it only has to continue for a month to get to a BtB >1. That said, I agree that the industry leaders are priced as if recovery were guaranteed, and that is somewhat optimistic, but ... .

To: John L. who wrote (27275)	12/18/1998 6:56:00 PM
From: Math Junkie	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

You can compare it to politics if you want (and I admit I did it too), but personally, I'm more interested in making money, and that means looking at how Wall Street responds to industry news. For people who want to get into this sector, it is already late, except for the small caps, but if you wait until the BtB is >1, you will be waaaaay too late. The last time a book-to-bill >1 was reported after a downturn was January 16, 1997. At that time, AMAT was already up 166% from its July 24, 1996 low. Right now AMAT is "only" 103% above its October 8th low. If the current rate of improvement in BtB continued at a linear rate, it would be >1 in two months, and if AMAT behaved like it did in '96, it would be up to 59 1/2 at that time. Wow, that's a scary thought!