To: Dave Shoe who wrote (1806 ) 12/19/1998 3:38:00 AM From: Dave Shoe Respond to of 6847
Sorry if you already realize this, but I now understand the probable production plan: Xybernaut intends to build at max capacity of approx 2000 per month for a fixed one year production window, whether there are orders or not. Parts cost is a small part of the full-expense picture, so it is most economical to predefine a manufacturing capacity and build to it. Parts can be ordered at a known-volume discount, parts delivery can be scheduled appropriately, etc. If 5000 or 10,000 units are left unsold at the end of 1999, don't expect a fire sale. It's better business to stand firm on pricing and mildly discount the remaining MA-IV only after the MA-V is released for delivery. I want to read back posts on SI to review some of the contract volumes which have been quoted by Xybernaut. They will make more sense now. My suspicion: In one year, the 300=333MHz MA-V will take over. It would be currently under development. It is still aimed at industry, not the consumer, because margins are better and because wearable PCs aren't even close to being practical for daily fashion wear (note the lack of media attention). By then IBM and others will start selling wearables. While Xybernaut becomes entrenched as standard product in the industrial-wearable market, IBM and others will aim for the larger consumer/internet market. The MA-IV offers many companies their first 'complete package' wearable, and they will order 'development quantities' this year of 10 to 100 units. As their proprietary software applications mature, order sizes for the MA-V will expand geometrically to obsolete inefficient paper systems. Again, this is just my opinion. Thanks for asking about the warrants, though. It got me thinking about mine. Why is the volume and price so dang low right now? Don't ask me. I haven't yet discovered any correlation to 'price vs. value' in emerging company stocks. If you want to sell some, though, you'd do best to wait for the next volume spike. The price will be better. Put your order in now and sit on it. Activity, though unpredictable, is never far away. Shoe.