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Technology Stocks : Compaq -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Nixpix who wrote (40529)	12/19/1998 10:44:00 AM
From: rupert1	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 97611

Nixie: I was saying since October that I thought CPQ would go to $42 before earnings, with a possible spike to $45. I thought $42 was the logical figure even when it was making its recent big move and everyone was talking about it going to $45 and $50 within a week. (But El and rudedog had been agreeing only the week before the big move that it would be at $35 and maybe $38 before earnings. In fact I bought more at $34 in that week). So I sold my position at $42 even though I conceded at the time that momentum makes an ass of logic in both directions. Given my belief in $42 before earnings, a buy at $39 was also logical and easy. Had it gone lower I would not have been troubled. I made this same move, more or less, three times. I'm now back in for the third time in three weeks. Momentum is stronger than I had anticipated, so perhaps I should think of $45 being more than a spike. I still believe that $45 would be the maximum for this calendar year, logically, but that in one period before earnings, a couple of weeks or one week before, it may spike higher. I would guess it might go as high as $48. However, momentum makes an ass etc etc After earnings, and after it settles, it should move to $50 by 23rd February at 1.43 EST. When I proposed this target on this thread about two months ago, most others on the thread put the $50 mark somewhere between April-October, 1999. I get the feeling that most would now put it before 23rd February, 1999. I am inclined to agree that it will spike over $50 after earnings, before falling back and then climbing back to $50 by the February date. I don't know what it will do in the next few days, if I had to guess, I would say there is a chance that it will re-visit $40. But as we get nearer the end of the year, the margin for error narrows. There will be a rush up at some point. I did not sell before Friday's close, although I was tempted to ride it down one more time. So I suppose that means that I don't think it worth the risk. If I was buying more I would be tempted to wait for $41, 40 or better, but would not be comfortable about it. If I was not a trader but a buy and hold type, I would feel ok about buying at $42. (After all I do think it is going to $75 + in 1999). This is not advice to you because I find that I adjust my own judgement in the light of momentum and news, have a very favourable tax situation and negligible trading costs. Victor