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Technology Stocks : VALENCE TECHNOLOGY (VLNC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: FMK who wrote (6095)	12/18/1998 11:28:00 PM
From: MGV	Respond to of 27311

Keep calculating there slick. 1. Forget a 33% net margin. 2. Forget capturing an immediate 20% market share in the laptop battery market. 3. Most likely forget 30M share base. 4. The line capacity assumption is suspect because it is unsupported by any official source. 5. The breakeven is suspect for the same reason. (cells vs. batteries). By the way: How many Bellcore licensees are out there (with deeper R&D pockets and less management/R&D team upheavals) racing to come to market as TNB apparently just has done before VLNC?

To: FMK who wrote (6095)	12/19/1998 12:13:00 AM
From: Jay Lowe	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 27311

>> 20% of 15 mln laptops amounts to 3 mln per year Well, yes, but my model's SWAGs asserts that only 5% of 15M laptops (750K) will be shipped with LiPoly (i.e., that only, say, 5 of 20 vendors will adopt, and only for new models released in 99 ... and that only late 99) ... these may indeed be the leading sellers, but still, it's a stretch to see a high adoption number in 99. That leaves aside the idea of add-on battery packs and add-on pack sales, which I estimated as 50% of 5% of laptops in 99. I don't mean to say that VLNC might not have a higher share price, since they are apt to get a high PE and forward-looking valuation given the growth picture. I'm having a hard time seeing how 3 mln batts will get into the field in 99 ... 1 mln seems achievable ... 3 mln, hmm ... that picture could, however, change very quickly if laptop vendor all line up to adopt right off the bat, which could happen ... they've moved fast on other new technologies ... and this is a VERY important feature. I don't have any meat to the cost-side of the model ... i just hid the cost picture in my margin guesses ... very vulnerable there.