Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Buffettology -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Shane M who wrote (702)	12/19/1998 1:16:00 AM
From: James Clarke	Respond to of 4691

If you adjust for the FASB 10(6?) writeoff in 1993(?) - maybe 1994 - then at 30 Deere is at the lowest P/B that it traded at in the brutal recession it endured 8 years ago. And I don't think Deere loses money this time around. Deere is another one I cover institutionally and know very well, and I agree with everything Shane said. I would also buy Case and New Holland here, but Deere is the safest investment in the sector and although the valuation was the last one to reach bottom, its there now. The outlook is awful for the next year or so, but if you have any doubt that Deere is an outstanding company, read Shane's post again. JJC

To: Shane M who wrote (702)	12/19/1998 2:45:00 AM
From: Crocodile	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 4691

shane, I agree with what you have to say about John Deere. They tend to get a lot of "loyalty" from customers. In our region, there are quite a number of farms where practically every piece of equipment is John Deere. This is particularly the case amongst custom operators who tend to be purchasers of the really large equipment such as combines. Certainly, there are plenty of different tractors around, but the popularity of other makes seems to come and go. BTW, I believe that farm tractor purchase figures are down significantly this year and I don't think the situation has begun to improve. When you consider how poor some of the farm commodity prices are at the moment, I don't think large farm machinery purchases will pick up for awhile. I believe I have seen a website where North American farm equipment purchase numbers are listed regularly. If I happen to come across it, I'll post the URL here. Croc

To: Shane M who wrote (702)	12/21/1998 10:37:00 AM
From: Robert Douglas	Respond to of 4691

Jim, Shane and others regarding Caterpillar, My opinion on CAT, if anyone is interested, is that it is fairly valued in the low to mid 40s. I bought the stock in October of 1989 and held my position unchanged until this year when I sold it all. I agree with the assessment that it is a growth cyclical and is likely to be more cyclical than growth for the next few years. A weaker dollar is clearly a plus for CAT, so keep your eye on the greenback if you buy this one. Komatsu may be their toughest competition and is suffering right now. Keep an eye on Komatsu too. I'm hoping the market will get bored over the next 18 months with CAT and let me get back in below $35. I believe patience will pay off on this one. -Robert