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Biotech / Medical : T/FIF Portfolio -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Larry Liebman who wrote (300)	12/19/1998 3:23:00 AM
From: Larry Liebman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1073

Forgot about MCDE, trading at near book! Buy more?

To: Larry Liebman who wrote (300)	12/19/1998 3:28:00 AM
From: scaram(o)uche	Respond to of 1073

Larry: The divergence between first- and third-tier has gotten to be just plain laughable. The divergence between the market caps of a 1992 company with technology X and a 1998 company with technologies X, Y and Z is absurd. So.... my long-term portfolio is largely composed of issues that you've listed. We are presented with remarkable ops, but.... I need to remember that Peter Freudenthal was correct, and that good companies need to survive long enough to bring their therapies to the patient. In that regard, ARIA's management has already screwed up big-time, ARQL's management has cashed out and failed to meet milestones, OSIP's management has failed to focus adequately, and I sometimes wonder if SIBI's management is like a deer caught in the headlights (VGCC/pain). So..... I like all of your choices with the exception of ONXX, and that's perhaps only because I haven't looked closely enough. I'd also opt for PCOP over ARQL, but I'm going to look silly if the attempt to integrate MSI and combichem doesn't float. Does anyone want to vote for CRGN? GLGC? AXPH? GZTC? REGN? Chiro? Something else? Also, will we have another Silverman/V1/Suzman/Engstrom year, or will third-tier "drug discovery" companies finally come around? How about neuro? I've had remarkable luck in neuro, given what has happened to the sector. It's just gotten killed, but.... there was NXCO (to Elan), GLIA, and the lolipop company (I forget the name). Also.... the rush to consolidate is on. Thus far, the only one that looks interesting to me is MegaMedicine (MBIO and GMED). Who should merge next? SIBI and BTRN just don't have sufficient bucks flowing through the labs, but they have great patents and huge promise. Who should buy them? Who should MLNM buy, using that strong currency (their stock)? REGN has tons of cash and funding, but insufficient diversification..... who should they buy? Why isn't Amgen out buying technology while it is so cheap? Who is DuPont going to buy? Who is Chiron going to buy? What other companies have a cash hoard that can be used to pick off the best of third tier? Anyone want to go out on a limb and pick MCDE, CBST or GENE? It would be great if everyone would pipe in with thoughts, philosophies, you name it. Third-tier has gotten crushed. We have a new generation of investors that only knows 1998 dogma, and that has no concept of what it costs to build an innovative research infrastructure or develop lead candidates. This is an amazing opportunity, IMO, but there are certainly those here who feel otherwise. Thanks, Larry, for getting the ball rolling. Rick