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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kathleen capps who wrote (41516)	12/19/1998 8:48:00 AM
From: sandstuff	Respond to of 53903

Micron will try to grow marketshare while prices drop 1Q99! If they applied the same rules to themselves as they do to their competitors...this would be called...DUMPING! Naturely, the US has to protect them. If WWIII does start, we'll need a domestic source for DRAMs :) Anyway, DRAM prices will drop 1Q99. I have no idea how this will affect MU stock price...because logic does not apply. Read below. '99 DRAM market: complicated -- Will influx of 64-Meg chips erode prices? Jack Robertson Micron Technology Inc. has doubled its output of 64-Mbit DRAM since mid- year to more than 18 million units per month, adding markedly to the increased supply already coming out of South Korea, sources said last week. OEMs and memory suppliers alike are watching closely to see if the sudden influx will start eroding DRAM prices once again. Micron's rapid 64-Mbit ramp surpasses the 35% to 40% output increases reported earlier this month by the Big Three South Korean suppliers-Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd., Hyundai Electronics Industries Co. Ltd., and LG Semicon Co. Ltd. Having raised monthly production to 18 million units, Micron is now neck and neck with Samsung as the industry's leading 64-Mbit producer, according to observers. And both companies are expected to increase 64-Mbit monthly output even more next year-albeit at a less feverish pace-as continued die shrinks yield an ever greater number of chips. Micron's latest increase is concentrated predominantly at its Boise, Idaho, fabs, with a nominal number of ICs coming from lines the company acquired from Texas Instruments Inc. A Micron spokeswoman said the former TI fabs will be converted to 0.18-micron feature sizes, which will sharply increase output in the next nine to 12 months. When fully converted, the newly acquired fabs will again double Micron's output, she said. Samsung is expected to keep pace with Micron's continued 64-Mbit production hikes. The South Korean company is performing die shrinks as rapidly as possible through a process conversion to sub-0.25-micron lines. Indeed, a Samsung spokeswoman said much of the company's $1 billion 1998 capital-spending budget went to upgrade existing fabs, with another $1 billion investment slated for similar upgrades next year. Samsung said it has no near-term plans to add new fab capacity, and discounted a report in the South Korean press that the company would renew construction on Fab 9 in Kiheung, which was postponed when DRAM prices crashed. However, Samsung will double output at its Austin, Texas, fab later next year to 25,000 wafer starts per month when it completes the second stage of its construction plan there. The relentless DRAM production contest is fast outstripping the ability of other chip makers to keep pace, according to observers. Japan's DRAM companies, for example, are also raising 64-Mbit output. But even that country's largest producer, NEC Corp., is capable of only about 10 million units per month. Some analysts believe such a production disparity could change the DRAM industry's market dynamics, as a few high-volume producers return to profitability by spreading costs over a far broader base of chips than their smaller competitors. The latest surge in 64-Mbit production is most likely being absorbed by OEMs that are ramping PC production for the holiday season, sources said. Weekly spot-market pricing surveys from Dataquest Inc., San Jose, and the American IC Exchange, Aliso Viejo, Calif., both showed that 64-Mbit prices are holding steady. However, many analysts expect the booming supply to drive down 64-Mbit prices in the first quarter of 1999 as demand tapers off after the holiday rush. Additionally, Micron's steep ramp has caused it to sell 64-Mbit chips into the spot market for the first time since late summer, brokers said. Already, memory-module manufacturers have reported that some DRAM producers are negotiating slightly lower 64-Mbit prices in advance of the possible post-holiday market slowdown. And a few OEMs have begun shedding excess inventory after ordering too many parts, which has driven certain DRAM module prices down by as much as 10%, the module makers said. While most of the market's attention is centered on 64-Mbit DRAMs, prices for trailing-edge 16-Mbit chips-and fast-page-mode and EDO versions of all densities-have continued to inch up. Indeed, some suppliers, such as Oki Electric Industry Co. Ltd., hope to maintain a profitable business by selling older-generation, 1- to 16-Mbit DRAMs for several years to come. Copyright ® 1998 CMP Media Inc.

To: Kathleen capps who wrote (41516)	12/19/1998 10:20:00 AM
From: Thomas G. Busillo	Respond to of 53903

Kathleen, my question is who's writing their material? Company execs, tongue-in-cheek, have suggested that instead of a traditional pre-game coin toss, team representatives could play scissors-rock-and-paper to decide who will takes possession of the pigskin. That hurts. "New Rules, New Tools" - okay, okay, I get the link to the tag-line, but that doesn't make the hurt go away <g> The $1 million looks to be the price tag the organizers of the whatever-bowl set to change the name to the Micron PC Bowl. What if 50-years from now technology advanced to the point where you could play that game totally on a PC? The players would be 22 normal-sized people sitting in front of PC's? 50-years after that, you eliminate even those "players" and it's merely code? Is this where the Bill Gates Irregulars are taking us? 100-years from now "the next Michael Jordan" will be a 5'4" guy who never shot a basketball in his life? Truly - new rules, new tools. Alright MUEI, turn the above into a short 3-minute film to air before kick-off if you sponsor the game next year. Bill me later <g> Good trading, Tom