To: Zeev Hed who wrote (6102 ) 12/20/1998 12:01:00 PM From: Ray Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 27311
Zeev, your estimate of the total battery market is too small. You wrote: >I think that the total battery market is in the $6 to $7 billion bucks, but a very large portion of that market is in primary rather then rechargeable batteries, and then in the Li-polymer batteries segment of that market, ....< An article in the 97-10-27 issue of Fortune estimated the USA market alone for all batteries to be about $6 billion in 1997. Another important factor is that the rechargeable market is growing rapidly. A good recent perspective on rechargeables (for Japanese manufacturers mainly)is given innikkeibp.com This reference shows (Fig. 2) that the Japanese rechargeable dollar (production?, retail?)volume has nearly doubled since 1993. And, the growth of Lithium based batteries has been much steeper. Two things, at least, fuel this growth: (1) better batteries supplant weaker ones, in new applications and in existing equipment, (2) better batteries generate new applications. In particular, with regard to (2), primary batteries like alkaline cells have until recently had an important power density advantage; but this advantage is disappearing. High power, trouble free (no "memory" effect or other problems) rechargeables will increasingly supplant primary batteries due to the greatly reduced cost of operation of such things as flashlights. And, better secondary batteries are much needed in solar powered homes and motor/trailer homes, not to mention various electric vehicles. Incidentally, who knows the figures for power density for LiPoly as compared to LiIon, NiCad, and NiMH? How well LiPoly does in the EV world and for power tools depends greatly on the power density factor.