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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wally Mastroly who wrote (2501)	12/19/1998 4:53:00 PM
From: Lars	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

Wally, >>> Another point on "adjournment" in the Senate. A simple majority would be required to allow adjournment - which could be used as a prelude to some kind a censure-type compromise. >>> I saw someone on TV say that there will not be any legal problems with the 105 to 106 controversy. Have you heard this? Supposedly this is one area that has been investigated intensely by the legal experts. The result being that the trial would proceed.

To: Wally Mastroly who wrote (2501)	12/20/1998 7:11:00 AM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 15132

Wally and All: The key to compromise is Senator Trent Lott at this point. Note here the inclination of the Senators to be quiet. Note also that Trent Lott is not moving towards anything short of trial. While I do not think at this point the Republicans will not get the 2/3rds vote, all that needs too change during the trial (a long one especially) to potentially affect the markets is the perception that things could be different. In other words, uncertainty may get a foothold: Senators Face Impeachment Pressure By JONATHAN D. SALANT .c The Associated Press WASHINGTON (AP) -- The 100 senators who will be asked for a verdict on President Clinton will face pressures that jurors in other trials never feel. One-third of them are up for re-election in two years. A half-dozen might run for president. Senators on both sides will be pressed hard to stand with their parties. Republicans had a large enough majority to impeach Clinton in the House no matter how the Democrats voted. But in the trial, Senate Republicans need Democratic votes to reach the two-thirds necessary for conviction. If the 55-member GOP majority holds together, 12 members of the opposing party -- more than one of every four Democrats -- would have to join them. There are reasons for party members on both sides to stay put. For example, one of the Democrats' biggest constituencies, organized labor, opposes impeachment. AFL-CIO President John Sweeney said Saturday the House vote was the ''disgusting conclusion of a single-minded, hate-driven, partisan stampede to oust a president twice elected by working families.'' And Republicans who might be willing to work with Democrats on an impeachment alternative would do so at the risk of alienating religious conservatives who are pushing for Clinton to be removed from office. Conservatives are especially important in Republican presidential primaries, and the GOP senators who are eyeing the White House in 2000 presumably would not want to alienate those voters. ''No presidential hopeful wants to be seen as unwilling to uphold the rule of law when they're seeking the highest office in our land,'' said Randy Tate, executive director of the Christian Coalition. Likewise, the Senate Republicans most likely to cross party lines -- the moderates -- run the risk of angering conservatives. ''Moderate Republicans are more at risk from a primary challenge than anybody else in this debate,'' GOP political consultant Craig Shirley said. A vote along party lines would mean Clinton would survive. ''Republicans have to make it bipartisan in the Senate or they'll lose,'' said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute of Public Opinion. ''They don't win without a significant defection among the Democrats.'' That reality may force a bipartisan deal for some sort of alternative punishment, such as censure. ''There will be several points early in the Senate proceedings when the Senate could choose to substitute a strong censure resolution,'' said Patrick Leahy of Vermont, the top Democrat on the Senate Judiciary Committee. ''If that does not happen, we are headed for a difficult and lengthy trial.'' So far, however, Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott, R-Miss., has rejected any deal. He said Saturday the Senate will proceed with a trial following preliminary motions and pleadings. He said he did not know when the trial would start. ''Senators will be prepared to fulfill their constitutional obligations,'' Lott said. But no one is saying the final verdict is a sure thing. ''Anyone who could predict the outcome isn't looking at immediate past history,'' said Sen.-elect Charles Schumer, D-N.Y. ''No one predicted the president would be impeached.'' One prediction many are making: The partisan rancor that marked the House debate is likely to be toned down. ''When this goes to the Senate, the dynamic of it is going to change,'' Republican political consultant Eddie Mahe said. ''The House is a very noisy, partisan place. Once it gets into the Senate, with the chief justice presiding, the decorum will be considerably different.'' Sen. Edward Kennedy, D-Mass., said Saturday that the impeachment issue was ''irreparably poisoned by the vindictive partisanship'' in the House and he pleaded with Senate Republican leaders to ''act more responsibly'' and allow a vote on censuring the president as an alternative of removing him from office. Already, some senators are trying to curtail the partisanship. ''I've had several private conversations with a couple of Republican colleagues,'' said Christopher Dodd, D-Conn. ''Many of them are determined not to let that happen in the Senate.'' Lott said the Senate would begin making preparations when it convenes in January, pausing for the White House to submit its response to the charges contained in the House's articles of impeachment. Preparing for a trial is no small undertaking. The prosecutors the House approves for a trial would have to line up testimony of witnesses. Evidence would have to be submitted by both sides. The president would get to make his case. Legal challenges could occur. Plenty of uncertainty remains. Senators of both parties are remaining mum until they get the facts. ''Although my inclination is against impeachment, I do want to reserve the right that a juror must reserve to hear the evidence,'' said Sen. Frank Lautenberg, D-N.J. ''Can you imagine a juror saying in an elevator, 'I'm going to vote to convict the defendant'?''