Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Z Best Place to Talk Stocks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Larry S. who wrote (17949)	12/19/1998 4:23:00 PM
From: Ron McKinnon	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 53068

ASHW Dan and I have a big truckload of this one, others from this thread are in also Q4 and FYE numbers came out on Thur: the stock dropped from 5.625 to 5 on moderate volume early friday trading was sedate. low volume in the 4.875-5 area mid morning it broke 4.875 and fell like a rock I agree with Dan's comments on yahoo that this was due to stops being triggered: >>>With regards to the price movement yesterday, I was watching ASHW trade on level 2 and the bid was very thin between 4 13/16 and 4 1/4. Because of this, I almost sold my stock at 4 7/8 but couldn't bring myself to push the sell button. A sell order at 4 7/8 pushed the bid down and most likely triggered sell stops at the new 52 week low. Since there wasn't much stock at the bid down to 4 1/4, it basically went into a free fall and my guess is that stop orders (which became market sell orders) were filled lower than where placed. Only 47,900 shares traded in the 5 minute period when ASHW plummeted from 4 7/8 to 4 1/4. In the next 5 minute period, the stock traded in a range of 4 1/8 to 4 1/2 on only 36,400 shares. Most of the volume was done in the afternoon after the big drop. The signficance of this is that some big buyers stepped up. If they hadn't, then the stock would have continued to fall from the supply being put on the market by sellers. all afternoon there were huge blocks (for this stock) going off; at one point late it looked like the selling had ceased but near the close a 10,000-25,000 block seller hammered it down to a low close a 1.1mm share day is a big one but it has been heavier 1/15/98 1.2mm 3/5 1.0 5/28 1.3 5/29 1.7 5/30 1.0 7/16 8.0 huge drop 12 to 8 earnings warning 7/16 1.7 7/20 1.6 8/12 2.1 good price increase 6 to 8 11/4 1.2 big drop 6 to 5 based on forward booking #'s so what have we got here? the stock rose from 6 to 18 over the last two years on signs of growth in sales and earnings we now had two disapointing Qtrs in a row so the company has lost credibility and market support there is likely to be more selling pressure from those in on margin, people giving up, and year end tax loss sellers I can not get any read on who the big fund seller (s) was I put a call into the CFO on Friday; left a message; they were closed at 2:00 west coast time (???) little insider activity of late, on either side there was 323,000 shares left on the 1.0mm stock buyback as of last report an additional buyback may help a lot also, there is an anti takeover pill in place the price is at a 5 year low, my gut says it mat well go lower from here to 12/30 but: this company has been profitable for years little debt huge working capital; current ratio of 6/1+ so no cash pressures at all book value is about 4.50-5.00 sales are growing nicely I see the problems as follows: inventory problems 6/97 220 days on hand 6/98 180 days 9/97 302 days 9/98 227 days so this is getting a bit better but to reduce the over-inventoried situation they had to really dump it off gros margin that had been in the 36-40% range tanked to 28%: tells me they had to dump big time to places like TJ Max and Marshalls to get rid of it A/R grew far too much; from what I think is a normal 60-70 days up to 90 days tells me they had to give extended dating to get customers to take goods off their hands SG+A is way up; not good unless it produces improved results Conclusion a profitable company that has a strong balance sheet that is in severe need of getting the operations turned around to get the stock price back up a strong statement from management to say how they will do this a need for an increased stock buy back program as well as insider buying to show confidence I think that this is a $5-8 stock for the next year or so but may well fall to the 3's in the near term for me this is a hold till 1/15-2/28 or so my target is $5.50-6.00 my personal plan is to hold my position although I may day trade it if there are 1/8-3/8's flips possible and I will add even more if it falls lower over the next week or so under 4.50 this is a bargin under 4.00 is a steal under 3.50 is a give away unless some new negative news comes out or if my conversation with management does not result in a degree of confidence from the answers in the past when I loaded the truck on one like this I have done very well; sure hope I am right this time as well