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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Terror who wrote (13335)	12/19/1998 1:00:00 PM
From: johnd	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74651

Folks, I hear a lot of arguments about MSFT should trade at a higher PE than CSCO and DELL. That is true but the same statement can also be said as DEL and CSCO should trade at lower PEs than MSFT. Frankly, I beleive the 70 PE for MSFT is way too rich and the PE WILL correct to 50ish sometime soon. DELL deserves to trade may be in 40 PE range and CSCO probably in the 45 to 50 range. The market is way overpriced at this point. Let us not paint too rosy a picture. We could any one of the following anyday and our high expectations will be toast: (a) Internet stocks crash (ala, AMZN,...) melting everything down. Could happen in JQAn, when people may time profiting due no taxes till 2000. (b) Clinton out and resulting uncertainities (c) Gulf war could get ugly (d) DOJ related mood can swing the otherway. Just look at history, everytime microsoft moved too far away the 200-day and 50-day moving average, which are now at 100 and 110, the stock goes down or sideways for a about 4-6 months. The key support is when Microsoft starts to buyback. At times of extreme optmisim like this one, one should always keep in mind the unpopular thought of "How low can it go?" Yours truely, johnd becasue of this talk about new economy.