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To: Tim Luke who wrote (31258)12/19/1998 6:08:00 PM
From: Stephen  Respond to of 119973
 
Tim, <everything isn't peaches & cream> ... too right. However, unless there's something new about to be announced, the market has already answered what it thinks of current events and seems to prefer a Santa Claus rally. Personally I think its ridiculous too .... but there you go. So what do we have coming up ... no interest rate cut on Tuesday ?? who thinks there will be .. no one I can think of. Iraq strikes back ... don't think so ... they are counting on the US stopping their attacks because of Ramadan..(okay ... so they overlap one day). If Iraq trys some action it gives the US an excuse to keep up the attack ... though they apparently don't have enough hardware in the area to maintain an ongoing affront.

On a technical front there doesn't appear to be the fundamentals to keep this thing going (bad breadth/hi&los) but all we are seeing is the result of two counter moves being enacted concurrently (I posted on LG's thread and asked Don Sew about this a few days ago). My take is that the tax loss selling will continue (the small/midcap losses) and the fund managers window dressing will also continue (the blue chips) and this will create the divergences. It seems to be playing out that way. I too was scared of a sell-off ... but we are getting very close to year end and january could see a flood of money entering the market - so who wants to sell now ??.

Just my take on whats happening, whether I think it should or not.

regards

Stephen