Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : VALENCE TECHNOLOGY (VLNC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gvander who wrote (6114)	12/19/1998 1:36:00 PM
From: Dennis V.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 27311

Hi Jay, thanks for your excellent effort. When weighting market share, you may want to consider the Korea offset. The top priority in Korean commerce is to conserve currency. One of the driving factors behind the changeover to lith poly is to avoid having to continue to buy batteries from Japan or other foreign countries. When batteries from Hanil become available in commercial quantities there is no doubt that the changeover by Korean electronics OEMs will be well underway. I expect that by mid year 2000 Hanil will be selling as many batteries as they can produce.

To: gvander who wrote (6114)	12/19/1998 2:37:00 PM
From: FMK	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 27311

Gvander, something I have meant to acknowledge. On February 4 1997 your words were "...My main point in this is to suggest that it is clearly too early to be making production estimates like the ones in this thread--" We know what has happened since and you were right. It was in February '97 that I became involved, bought my first shares and began participating on the SI thread. What a lesson it has been in terms of becoming involved too early. I can only imagine how it must have felt to have invested heavily a few years earlier in the 20's and watching the fall to $3. It's been a long haul just since Feb '97. I admit I became convinced too early. My timing has been poor, but I believe the potential is as great as ever and there is now near-zero chance for failure. I envy anyone with the good fortune to have started investing in Valence just recently. A managing director of a large securities firm and fund manager explained their firm's policy of not getting involved with development stage companies. The problem is that many either fail or take a long time to mass produce and show earnings. Their low risk approach is to wait for analyst coverage and earnings. At that point, $15 or $20 is a good entry point and its still a great investment while watching it climb from there. I have become more enthusiastic lately because I believe we are close to the point of analyst coverage, large contracts and similar events to trigger involvement by more institutions and the more conservative category of big players. Our reward for getting in early and suffering some delays is the difference of seeing our stock run from $5 or $7.50 to $75 compared to starting at $15 to $75 for the more cautious investors. The end result is that we will own over twice as many shares for the same dollar investment. So while I admit my timing was bad and you were right back then, I believe it is now appropriate to lighten up on the warnings and open our eyes to the positive indicators such as the absense of any "death spiral", Worldcom's chairman coming on board, 500,000 plus shares of insider buying and increase in head count from 65 to 270 and such statements by the CEO as the anaylsts were "blown away" and that " he wouldn't, in a million years, have ordered more equipment if he thought there was a chance of failure. exchange2000.com Regards, FMK

To: gvander who wrote (6114)	12/20/1998 3:32:00 AM
From: Jay Lowe	Respond to of 27311

>> convert your model into a cash flow model Got it ... great points there to add to the other feedback. In terms of adding a decline, I sort of did that in a crude way by limiting LiPoly to a max of 50% penetration of secondary batt technologies ... assuming that Zinc-air, fuel cells, and whatever will be coming online in 3-4 years. I really have no insight yet into how these factors will interact in the stabilize/decline window. I agree that there will be more vendors than those currently on the horizon ... the Nekkei Electronics articles you posted hint at some of them ... and other must exist and come into being. Captured your comments for the next pass. I imagine switching to a two-level model ... one which models adoption rate and production distribution within the market, and one which models VLNC operations in more detail within that environment.