Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Three Amigos Stock Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James Strauss who wrote (11487)	12/19/1998 7:41:00 PM
From: Sergio H	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 29382

Jim and Max....steak knives aside, Ed Yardeni offers support for Max's theory. Ed has been a sort of Paul Revere of the Y2K issue. Y2K IS COMING, Y2K IS COMING !!!!! The newsletter: COMMENT: Inflation rates are moving very close to zero around the world. We are literally on the edge of deflation. Expect even more signs of deflation in 1999, despite further central bank easing and lower government bond yields. I still believe we are heading into a global bear market for stocks, which already started in 1997 for Asia and Latin America, and in 1998 for Europe and some sectors of the US stock market. The global rally since mid-Oct pushed US stocks to a possible double-top. The advance has been very narrow both among NYSE stocks and global stock markets, which have not recovered to their previous record highs. (See GLOBAL MARKETS BRIEFING.) Y2K COMMENT: I've spent the past 4 weeks studying the Y2K disclosure statements of the S&P 500 corporations in their third quarter SEC filings. I didn't get a warm, fuzzy feeling. I would really like to lower my subjective probability of a global Y2K recession, which remains at 70%. But, I found no reason to do so in what I read. America's largest corporations have had to increase their total Y2K budgets by 26%, on average since the end of last year. They've spent only 42% of their latest estimated budgets, which are likely to continue to rise through 1999. Of the 11 S&P industry groups, utilities were dead last with a spending-to-budget ratio of 31%! (See the latest four issues of THE Y2K REPORTER.) STOCK VALUATION: In addition to tracking the "Greenspan Model" daily for you on my home page, I am now monitoring earnings expectations and stock valuation for Canada, the UK, Germany, France, and Japan every month in GLOBAL VALUATION MODELS. IMPEACHMENT NEWS: An informed source in the White House (not an intern) expects that Bill will agree to resign, but only if Hillary replaces him in the Oval Office. She will then pardon her husband before filing for a divorce. You heard it here first. Maybe I scooped the Drudge Report. Happy Holidays and Happy New Year, Dr Ed ****************** Please forward as appropriate. To unsubscribe, reply with REMOVE in the subject field or top of text. ****************** Home: yardeni.com