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Gold/Mining/Energy : Barrick Gold (ABX) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DeplorableIrredeemableRedneck who wrote (884)	12/20/1998 12:52:00 AM
From: ahhaha	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3558

Sufficiently efficient to bust all doubters. The instantaneous price of a stock reflects the democratically expressed cumulative knowledge of the expected future value. You can expect to realize a return commensurate to the growth of assets held. Deviations away from this expectation are random. When you trade, you are betting on the deviation, not the expectation. The expectation of the deviation has a negative expected return just like Vegas. Because Vegas needs to pay the rent, the random fluctuations are structured to average slightly in the red for you. The take is the difference between the slight and the coin toss expectation. You get taken at that rate. Same in trading. Investment can put you in the black since its yield asymptotically approaches the growth of assets held. The average expectation with investment is that no one can expect to outperform others. The universal experience is seen in the almost impossible outcome of consistently outperforming the averages among money managers. All can only expect to get the growth of assets held. How could you expect to get something for nothing? You may notice I use the term "expectation" often. If you can rigorously define this term, then you may not find the Random Walk Thesis so objectionable. These concepts cover all the factors and concepts you've used in your comments.