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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: lizard lick who wrote (30530)	12/20/1998 8:18:00 AM
From: a. paisley	Respond to of 164684

Check out MLRE

To: lizard lick who wrote (30530)	12/20/1998 9:43:00 PM
From: Glenn D. Rudolph	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

The Internet Capitalist SG Cowen Internet Research 12 Internet Stocks - Fabulous or Folly? Of all the sectors that have produced speculative juices in this great secular bull market, none can hold a candle to Internet stocks. There is an out-and-out feeding frenzy among many initial public offerings in the sector, with a number of stocks tripling or more on the first day of trading. What should we make of this? Is this a tulip-bulb mania that will explode completely? Is there a valid financial rationale to justify this enthusiasm or is it just a sign of excess speculation in the final stages of a tremendously powerful bull market? Here are a few important points to consider from a historical point of view. * Commerce-transforming events invariably engender speculation in the agents of change. * The development of railroads in the latter part of the nineteenth century had a profound impact on the U.S. It sparked and consolidated other developing technologies. Railroad and railroad-related stocks went through a huge speculative phase with a number of severe corrections. * In the 1950s, the mainframe computer began to infiltrate U.S. industry. IBM, which was the unquestionable leader, went up 18-fold from 1956 to 1961. At its peak IBM, then the largest technology company in the world, sold at over 75 times trailing 12-months earnings. It suffered a severe correction beginning with the 1962 market break. It declined 53% from peak to trough and did not recover its relative performance until 1966, four years later. * Biotechnology had a speculative bubble that peaked by year-end 1992. Stocks such as Centocor (CNTO-48) had appreciated 12 times. And Genzyme (GENZ-45 ) went up 10-fold in three years. Moreover a number of start-ups with no revenues or earnings became market capitalized at well over $200 million. Near the end there were a number of frauds and unethical promotions that led to a massive correction in the group in early 1993. Well over 70% of these companies no longer exist. And premier companies such as Amgen (AMGN-78) declined 60%. Even a survivor like Centocor went from 60 to 5. The problem in biotechnology was that although there was great promise, both revenues and earnings were far in the future. And with some product failures and a high burn rate of cash, the hype was very quickly deflated. The Internet and its stocks offer unparalleled excitement. There will undoubtedly be speculative excesses and over-promotion. However, for the investor willing to take on a high-risk investment, there is still ample opportunity. Importantly a longer-term time horizon will ameliorate some high volatility that is unavoidable in this area. Marketers Thinking Like Portfolio Managers? While Internet advertising spending continues to increase, there is a definite trend sweeping through the online marketing community. During some informal discussions with online media planners this week, we were struck by the consistency of their message. “I know portals are the big buzzword, but it seems more hype than anything - the ad dollars will not be going there,” said one media planner. Another shared her disappointment with directories, “We're lucky to get .6% click-throughs. Only banners with offers or promotions get any sort of response.” As if we needed confirmation of this trend, a recent Forrester study concluded that advertisers are not getting a proper return on their investment at directory sites. All this talk about ROI is not new (in either the ad business or on the Street). Direct