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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JBL who wrote (30533)	12/20/1998 6:51:00 AM
From: Yikes	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 164684

<< IMO, the game stops with a Nasdaq crash. >> When one goes, all of them will follow. The timing will be completely unexpected to most people except when examined in retrospect -- there will be clearly visible signs. Most people now expect a great 4th quarter, followed by a weak 1st quarter. So the best time to get out of Internet e-commerce stocks like AMZN is when the 4th quarter earning is announced (Jan 22). No matter how good the earning will be, the day after the announcement, the stock will tumble due to 'profit taking.' But of course, everyone knows to 'sell on news' so the tumble will be expected. Since everyone expects it, it won't happen. Instead, they will sell before then. Or sometime between now and Jan 22, something will set off the chain reaction of selling. Perhaps something as simple as a rumor of SEC investigating short-selling for thin-float Internet stocks, like AMZN. Another possibility is this: during the next two weeks, small investors selling some of their holdings to lock-in profit for 1998. Nothing feel better than to gloat to one's distant relatives, "I bought at $95, sold at $295!" There has been many signs. Lone analyst set target at $400, Merril counters with $50. Numerous analysts on CNBC and CNN raising the caution flag. Larger than previous year's negative earnings, despite strong sales. All the signs are here. Yikes

To: JBL who wrote (30533)	12/20/1998 2:19:00 PM
From: H James Morris	Respond to of 164684

>>-IMO, the game stops with a Nasdaq crash<< On the above I agree wholeheartedly. I'm betting the ranch on the Nasd 100 and hope like hell it doesn't happen until the 2nd qtr of next year. ps I sold a lot of my Ndx options a few weeks back. Like you, I'm upset. Like you I came back in.

To: JBL who wrote (30533)	12/20/1998 5:59:00 PM
From: re3	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 164684

Hi JBL, I feel so silly when I bought a put on amzn (dec 200) because the dec 260's went for under a buck this last week. I noticed amzn went up the expiration week of Nov too...I still think amzn will go down 100 all in one day, but the puts are too pricey and shorting could be hazardous. Yet I want to be involved somehow...Any advice... Even nas index puts are pricey...However we did have that day in the fall when the nas tanked heavily, could the next tanking be much worse ? If so , how to play...all advice is welcomed Howard

To: JBL who wrote (30533)	12/20/1998 9:46:00 PM
From: Glenn D. Rudolph	Respond to of 164684

The Internet Capitalist SG Cowen Internet Research 16 The Internet Capitalist Manifesto Why “Capitalist”? The Internet is interesting and hip. It's also popular and cool. Unfortunately, recognition of these facts wouldn't have necessarily made you much money over the last few years. Indeed, an investment strategy based on these gleanings would have left you with a portfolio of Java, VRML, and “push” technology vendors. And though each of these might have created shareholder value on the margin, none would have compensated you for the risk inherent in Internet investing or for the opportunity cost of not being more fully invested in profitable Internet themes. Our goal, then, with “The Internet Capitalist” is to identify and profit from the dislocations that the Internet has created for businesses and consumers alike. We start by asking three basic questions: Which companies have identified the revenue opportunities created by the Internet's growth as a consumer and business medium? Which have the skill sets and management breadth to execute against these opportunities? and Which have business models that will create substantial shareholder value over time? Our answers to these questions should help you capture the arc of our thinking in this industry as it evolves from a network for academics into a medium for the masses. Why “Companion”? We hope this piece asks as many questions as it answers, and generates as much debate as it satisfies (which we plan to include). Coupled with a user friendly layout, we want “The Internet Capitalist“ to stimulate and ease the investment decision. The mental framework with which we parse Internet investments is defined broadly and driven by a few relatively simple themes. Within this framework, however, there are multiple paths to generating superior, above-market returns. “The Internet Capitalist” is our attempt to illustrate those paths on an ongoing basis, determine the commonality among them, and suggest how shareholder value will be impacted and where it will flow. And though you'll find us to be bullish on the Internet sector generally, our expectations for these stocks are tempered by three realities. First, that the market remains relatively inefficient for these securities, which makes taking a substantial ownership position both difficult and costly. Second, valuation levels leave little to no room for errors of execution or strategy. Third, profits (or cash flow) matter; progress toward meaningful profitability is a necessary condition for an increase in shareholder value. With those caveats, we still believe investors can achieve superior returns based on a patient, disciplined, long term strategy toward investing in this sector. We hope “The Internet Capitalist” becomes an indispensable tool toward that end.