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To: Abner Hosmer who wrote (24617)12/20/1998 7:19:00 AM
From: John Mansfield  Respond to of 116972
 
fiendbear.com



To: Abner Hosmer who wrote (24617)12/20/1998 2:33:00 PM
From: Jimsy  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 116972
 
Thomas - but, but, but, the Presidents approval rating just reported by CNN is up to 72%. Now in addition to that endorsement from the American public, are you suggesting that the 2 busloads of supporting Democrats who went to show public support yesterday, plus Albright, Cohen, Berger, Toni Blair and all his intelligentsia, Butler, Rubin, Greenspan haven't got their peepers open enough to question their leader or association with him? Not likely, I suggest.

Price of gold is to some extent all tied up in this, price of oil(weather and inventory drawdown), Eurobuck, Asian crisis, SA economies. If in Tradestation, I put an overlay or coorelation of the oil index XOI and the gold index XAU, they are pretty much in line with each other. So what factors will produce some decoupling? Impeachment trial? Maybe, but with a Republican party in disarray, this is a big uncertainty.

I'm not in the USA or a US citizen so I'm watching all this unfold as an observer while day-trading the S&Ps and watching the impact of events as they would impact the S&P futures contract. Almost without exception, when Clinton is scheduled to speak, look for about a 2-3 point gain in the S&P futures contract. That to me is a pretty strong indication that the fund managers, individuals, who buy into the S&P 500 companies sort of like what Clinton has contributed. Additionally, US enjoys maximum employment, and most RRSPs have done well etc. Throughout this whole affair, the Democrats have come across as pretty good statesmen for the most part, very few Repupblicans have come across as Statesmen and that is a fundamental problem for them.

Now the Republicans have been after Clinton from day one, but with Gingrich, Livingston, Hyde, they are having a tough time with their own image of being purer than thou. I doubt as you indicate that Hilary's database found anything on Livingston, rather it seems it was this guy Flynt who got something directly from as many as 4 ladies on his escapades. A perception is that his own Republican party then knifed him in the back and convinced hime to get out. But Flynt isn't done, claims to have the scoop on another prominent Republican member of the Judiciary committee who isn't Hyde - likely before Flynt is finished he will find about 20 or so not so pure puritanist Republicans. Will there be enough puritanists left to get 13 house managers for the impeachement trial? Actually, Christoper Cox has already claimed that he is of the loftier than thou standard. Magnificent!

If there is a trial. Just wait till we get Starr and Tripp under the cross-examination of a proper court system. We could have some more bombshells as we find out who put who up to what when, for how much money, etc. Unfortunately Clinton lapsed into the setup and I think the public understands which is why his approval rating stays up.

All this is very fascinating. In any case, if the Republicans beging to actually throw out this Pres, get ready to short the market, cash in your RRSPs, and will gold be a haven? Maybe, but not a certainty. If the Euro gets accepted and becomes the safe haven, watch for total turmoil in the US dollar, the US economy, and the Republicans will be held responsible. The best thing the Republicans can hope for is some kind of censure deal to replace the trail. The worst thing for the Republicans is to actually succeed in getting Clinton dumped.