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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: HammerHead who wrote (2382)	12/20/1998 2:09:00 PM
From: Monty Lenard	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Well Robert don't leave me hanging. Which is correct? :-) Monty

To: HammerHead who wrote (2382)	12/20/1998 3:30:00 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Robert; Without taking issue in the opposing views, it is real obvious that the style of the writing says a lot. The second article is slap full of non-sequitur statements, and hence I would discount it greatly. In the 2nd one the lack of any objectivity is appalling, hence I believe it's nothing but some sht head hammering home his position. The 1st one leaves more more to think the writer has an opinion, but not a position he feels he needs to force on others. --------------- Also the second one takes on a desperate tone , and that makes me wonder if the writer is as sure of what he is saying as he would dearly like us to believe. The piss poor arguments he presents are not worth my time to validate or refute, to me he is stupid, but that don't mean he won't be right, sometimes even stupid people get something right. -------------- Trying to predict the impact the ECU will have is horse Sht anyway. There will be as many experts on one side as the other, and only the FEW with enough real data to know, and they won't be talking. To profit from exchange rate speculation over time you not only have to be smarter than the markets. & That requires years of experience and a bit of luck as well. Also Markets make the best use of information, but only a few people have superior information, and they don't broad cast it. Paul Krugman and Maurice Obstfeld write in their book "International Economics: Theory and Policy" (New York, HarperCollins:1994): If exchange rates are asset prices that respond immediately to changes in expectations and interest rates, they should have properties similar to those of other asset prices, for example, stock prices. Like stock prices, exchange rates should respond strongly to "news," that is, unexpected economic and political events; and, like stock prices, they therefore should be very hard to forecast. In a study by Richard M. Levich ("Evaluating the Performance of the Forecasters", in: Donald R. Lessard, ed., "International Financial Management", New York: John Wiley:1985, pp. 218-233) he surveyed the track record of a dozen exchange rate forecasting companies and he found little evidence that professional forecaster do systematically better than an individual who, for example, uses the three month forward rate. That does not imply that forward rates are good predictors. In fact, they usually do not predict exchange rate movements very well. News will effect them, & any one should have know that the piggy back drop in our interest rates would hurt the dollar more than one big cut. If GreenSpam was even 1/10th as smart as many people think he is he would have done only one rate cut, making it as much as we finally got, he should have know that sticking in his fingers twice in a row would be worse on the dollar than a clean cut. I see so much stupidity in the markets that it amazes me that any of it works at all. ---------------- If you see a doctor give a friend a heartbypass, that may not worry you all that much now days, But if that doctor rolls your friend in again for another in about only a month, you have reason for concern, not matter what the stupid doctor says, or tries to play it down.. man the dollar took a big hit on that second cut..if it dont come back soon stocks will in time follow it down. Or we wind up with runaway inflation. I have no idea of what the EUC will do to the dollar, but I'm sure the Europiens are hoping it will take over and kill the U.S. dollar, and also our sellout Federal Reserve agents will work in collusion to see that the big international investment/bankers get what ever they want. But do they want the dollar replaced..my guess is not at frist they don't..but would prefer to see it more on an equal footing as to volume traded. To do that the EUC has to go up in respect to the dollar. But there are some third parties that get a vote to..and if they will trust the ECU remains to be seen. Eventually I think it will be up to them, and doubt anyone knows yet how they will take to it. Jim