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Strategies & Market Trends : The Thread Formerly Known as No Rest For The Wicked -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tim Luke who wrote (3413)	12/20/1998 3:27:00 PM
From: ztect	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 90042

Will public support for Clinton erode as a trial proceeds and will pressure grow on him to resign? Maybe -- Is there any chance of 12 Democratic senators abandoning the president, giving the Republicans the 67 votes needed to remove him from office? No...Unlike members of the House of Representatives who are elected every two years, members of the Senate are under less political pressure to comply with the the "Republican leadership" (something of an oxymoron). Why? Many "moderate" House Republicans were threatened that if they voted against impeachment or for censure, that a well funded ultra conservative would oppose them in their primaries in two years. A more likely scenario than Democratic Senators breaking rank, is that three or four moderate Republicans defect and consequently rather than impeachment the Senate votes for censure. Regarding the House vote, one should also note that as a lame duck Congress there is a large question as to the validity of the vote. The whole point of moving so quickly and forward with the vote in the House, even with forces engaged in Iraq, was that many of these lame duck Representatives won't be in Congress. Thus with slimmer majorities and re-appointed committee chairs, the impeachment vote ,if it even arose, would have been defeated. -- Will the Republicans face a political backlash in the elections of 2000 for pursuing the impeachment case against Clinton in the face of public opposition? Yes, most definitely. Pressure by the far right has alienated many Republicans and has fractured the party. Even the Republican's designated front runner to date, Governor George Bush of Texas is considered way to moderate for the Ollie North's, Jerry Falwell's and Pat Robertson of the fanatically right. Now name a current Republican Senator or Representaive who has any viability on the national stage? Without Bush, do you think the Republicans have a chance in h@ll of reclaiming the Executive Branch of government with the likes of Quayle, Bennett, Forbes or Buchanan?(Governors Ridge, Pataki and Whitman are less viable than Bush and also way too moderate for the far right). A certain politician who gave up his Senate position because of his disgust of partisan politics will kick a little butt in the next election. So remember you read it here first... the next President of the United States will be Bill Bradley. Also remember that you read it here first, that Bill will have the first female Vice President, a moderate Democratic Senator from the State of California Diane Feistein. The Bradley/Feinstein ticket is going to have long coat tails. -- As the politics of revenge deepens, how many politicians and public officials will see their lives wrecked and careers ruined because of past indiscretions, sexual or otherwise? At least 12 more.... Please click this link. Message 6908517 As Kissinger said, "Power is the ultimate aphrodisiac" So don't be surprised to see a lot more hypocrites screwed. -- Can Congress or the president get anything else accomplished in the next year? Has the do nothing Congress done anything? Why should things be any different with a weakened President? Wasn't this the whole point of this farce anyway i.e. to undermine a popular President so he can't utilized the bully pulpit to enact legislation? Funny how Starr, who is a paid advocate for Tobacco companies (and helped Paula Jones find her attorneys), and his investigation occurred at the same time that the President was trying to implement tougher tobacco legislation. Coincedence? No. ztect PS. Tim..let me say I'm sorry to all on this thread for my threat, my misperceived P&D (in reality, just plain enthusiasm) for the stock I recommended, and any haughtiness that I demonstrated due to any specific language or words I have used. However, regarding "my threat" my reaction was an emotional one for the reasons stated. Plus there are many pending acts of litigation regarding how libel on the internet will be prosecuted as if it were stated publicly on any other media. I imagine you are already familiar with some actions as they pertain to libel and defamation regarding specific companies as already demonstrated on the threads of SI (spelling not checked)

To: Tim Luke who wrote (3413)	2/12/1999 8:21:00 PM
From: ztect	Respond to of 90042

Sunday, Dec 20 1998 3:27PM ET ....ZTECT MAKES THE CALL !!!! Sorry couldn't resist.... techstocks.com To: Tim Luke (3413 ) From: ztect Sunday, Dec 20 1998 3:27PM ET Will public support for Clinton erode as a trial proceeds and will pressure grow on him to resign? Maybe -- Is there any chance of 12 Democratic senators abandoning the president, giving the Republicans the 67 votes needed to remove him from office? No...Unlike members of the House of Representatives who are elected every two years, members of the Senate are under less political pressure to comply with the the "Republican leadership" (something of an oxymoron). Why? Many "moderate" House Republicans were threatened that if they voted against impeachment or for censure, that a well funded ultra conservative would oppose them in their primaries in two years. A more likely scenario than Democratic Senators breaking rank, is that three or four moderate Republicans defect and consequently rather than impeachment the Senate votes for censure. Regarding the House vote, one should also note that as a lame duck Congress there is a large question as to the validity of the vote. The whole point of moving so quickly and forward with the vote in the House, even with forces engaged in Iraq, was that many of these lame duck Representatives won't be in Congress. Thus with slimmer majorities and re-appointed committee chairs, the impeachment vote ,if it even arose, would have been defeated. -- Will the Republicans face a political backlash in the elections of 2000 for pursuing the impeachment case against Clinton in the face of public opposition? Yes, most definitely. Pressure by the far right has alienated many Republicans and has fractured the party. Even the Republican's designated front runner to date, Governor George Bush of Texas is considered way to moderate for the Ollie North's, Jerry Falwell's and Pat Robertson of the fanatically right. Now name a current Republican Senator or Representaive who has any viability on the national stage? Without Bush, do you think the Republicans have a chance in h@ll of reclaiming the Executive Branch of government with the likes of Quayle, Bennett, Forbes or Buchanan?(Governors Ridge, Pataki and Whitman are less viable than Bush and also way too moderate for the far right). A certain politician who gave up his Senate position because of his disgust of partisan politics will kick a little butt in the next election. So remember you read it here first... the next President of the United States will be Bill Bradley. Also remember that you read it here first, that Bill will have the first female Vice President, a moderate Democratic Senator from the State of California Diane Feistein. The Bradley/Feinstein ticket is going to have long coat tails. -- As the politics of revenge deepens, how many politicians and public officials will see their lives wrecked and careers ruined because of past indiscretions, sexual or otherwise? At least 12 more.... Please click this link. Message 6908517 As Kissinger said, "Power is the ultimate aphrodisiac" So don't be surprised to see a lot more hypocrites screwed. -- Can Congress or the president get anything else accomplished in the next year? Has the do nothing Congress done anything? Why should things be any different with a weakened President? Wasn't this the whole point of this farce anyway i.e. to undermine a popular President so he can't utilized the bully pulpit to enact legislation? Funny how Starr, who is a paid advocate for Tobacco companies (and helped Paula Jones find her attorneys), and his investigation occurred at the same time that the President was trying to implement tougher tobacco legislation. Coincedence? No. ztect

To: Tim Luke who wrote (3413)	2/12/1999 11:40:00 PM
From: Tim Luke	Read Replies (8) \| Respond to of 90042

hi all, i wish i could say everything was great but that is not the case....(personal/family.. not financial) pair...no current news so it's still a hold dell...thank God i can trade in pre-market..saved me 9 points osi....a great buy here..this will be in the 30's in the next couple weeks...it gets ***** aig...what can i say, i pounded the table a few days ago to buy it under 100, i know a few of you did...it hit 110 today. here is my top play going into next week, i was advised to load up on FORE....i'm hearing this stock could be bought as early as next week. IMO this is the hottest deal going...asnd was the first big networker to go and it look as though FORE is next.....i'm trying so hard to stay on top of things but i'm out of my realm right now.....my pops is very ill and it's leaving me with the most empty feeling inside and everthing else seems so minor... i had to do a interview today which i was not in the right frame of mind to do but they were under a deadline....one of the topics i touched on was CNBC....it is my opinion these guys cause alot of the havoic and panic selling in the market and it's getting worse.....it is MY OPINION they added 5 points to dell's loss today by this damn gloom and doom all day long......what a bunch of bullshit that their damn egos are so huge that they seem to get a rise out of their power now. nuff said...i will check in next week unless i hear something breaking that might help you guys out. regards t . . . Analyst: Chris Bulkey (2/11/99) The telecom equipment sector looks ripe for further consolidation. Lucent's (NYSE: LU) purchase of Ascend (NASDAQ: ASND) signals the increasing need of traditional equipment vendors to acquire data networking capabilities. Lucent's willingness to pay 13 times sales for Ascend demonstrates that telecom vendors are willing to pay premium valuations to enter data networking markets. Ascend was long rumored to be the industry's prime takeover candidate due its dominance in wide area networks (WAN) and Asynchronous Transfer Mode (ATM) technology. According to ABN AMRO Ascend controls 28.3% of the ATM WAN equipment market and 37.8% of the market for frame relay switches -- both #1 rankings. Data traffic will continue to explode in the coming years due to the growth of the Internet and the migration of mission critical functions to client/server computing environments. As large equipment vendors like Cisco (NASDAQ: CSCO), Lucent and Northern Telecom (NYSE: NT) expand their product offerings (offering end-to-end solutions) and build extensive sales and distribution capabilities, it will become increasingly difficult for small- and mid-sized vendors to compete. Hambrecht & Quist analyst Farrokh Billimoria figures that the smaller vendors will be compelled to partner or merge with larger players. 4 Takeover Targets Farrokh identifies four potentially attractive candidates: Newbridge Networks (NYSE: NN), Fore Systems (NASDAQ: FORE), 3Com (NASDAQ: COMS) and Cabletron Systems (NYSE: CS). In its Telecom outlook for 1999, ABN AMRO echoed much of Farrokh's sentiment noting that Lucent and Siemens (NASDAQ: SMAWY) are the two most likely to be active on the acquisition front. Industry heavyweights Alcatel (NYSE: ALA), Ericcson (NASDAQ: ERICY) and Tellabs (NASDAQ: TLAB) could also broaden their scope. Now that the Ciena (NASDAQ: CIEN) fiasco is out of the way Tellabs will likely look for an acquisition to fill out its ATM broadband strategy. Fore is our Fave So who makes the best acquisition candidate? Our research shows that Fore Systems seems to have the right product mix. Fore has a strong product line of ATM switching equipment, and its newest switch -- the ASX-4000 -- is expected to garner significant contract wins over the coming months. Over the past six quarters ATM switch products have been the most important contributor to revenue growth. In the December quarter Fore's ATM revenue increased 12% sequentially largely due to demand for the ASX-4000. Analysts expect that the burgeoning demand for ATM equipment in both wide area and local area networks will continue to place a premium on Fore shares. CIBC Oppenheimer analyst Martin Pyykkonen, although unwilling to comment on specific takeover possibilities, does admit that Fore could be an attractive candidate down the line. He notes that Fore has 'scarcity value' due to its 'significant ATM technology', which would make the company attractive to a larger equipment vendor. 3Com and Cabletron do not possess Fore's ATM capabilities, while Newbridge has a large exposure to the declining TDM market which places a strain on consistent profitability. Another consideration with Fore is its historic inability to generate returns on invested capital (ROIC) above their cost of capital. An infusion of capital and increased scale economies (from a combination with a larger player) would help change that trend. An analysis of comparable valuations solidifies Fore as the most attractive candidate in my opinion. Fore's $1.9 billion market cap pales in comparison to Newbridge and 3Com ($4.9 and $12.2 billion respectively), while Cabletron's $1.5 billion cap reflects its declining market position. Cabletron, once a behemoth, has since stumbled in this highly competitive industry. To buy Fore a potential suitor would not have to increase financial leverage, as the balance sheet is debt free. The other three companies, however, would come with fairly significant debt levels. Fore's management has also done a good job of cash flow generation over the years leaving the balance sheet flush with over 3 bucks a share in cash -- making the entity that much more attractive. Fore trades at 37 times this year's consensus estimates, which is much cheaper than Newbridge's 55 times multiple. Cabletron will post a loss this year making any P/E comparison meaningless. 3Com trades at 25 times, but has had some earnings disappointments and is still struggling with its previous acquisition of US Robotics. Fore, however, is the most expensive from a price to sales standpoint, but again it is important to remember that the other three companies have fundamental problems which justifies their lower valuations. I would not expect future acquisitions to command a multiple similar to Ascend due to the company's dominant market position and state of the art product line. If Fore were to fetch only half of the 13 times sales multiple assigned to Ascend you'd be looking at a $32.50 stock, more than 100% above Wednesday's closing price of $15.31. It is tough to speculate on potential takeovers, but we are confident that the networking industry will continue to consolidate. Heck even Lucent said it isn't done filling out its product line. With four or five other large players vying to remain competitive, the opportunities for consolidation are numerous. Bottom Line It's tough to speculate on timing, but I'd be surprised if Fore enters the new millenium as an independent company. Perhaps some of that sentiment is already priced into Fore's valuation, but as H&Q's Billimoria contends 'we believe the acquisition candidates will trade up over the next few months as their valuations reflect a greater acquisition premium.'