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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kech who wrote (1278)	12/20/1998 4:06:00 PM
From: DaveMG	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 34857

Interesting tidbit. I was unaware that McCaw ever considered CDMA.EOM

To: kech who wrote (1278)	12/22/1998 1:52:00 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 34857

Tom, I agree that NTT won't wait. The revenue and profit rates are high and market share is going begging now. The cost per minute of producing cdmaOne is $0.002 or thereabouts at around 25% system use. The competition is away racing on the basic system [cdmaOne] which NTT is sure to have to build in 3 years whatever detailed 3G specification is chosen. There isn't going to be any other chip rate. There is going to be cdmaOne synchronization. They have to get into the market now. This is a FAST moving market with extraordinarily high handset turnover. I'm with Tero on that one. I'm usually Mr Conservative and use things about 3 decades after everyone else has declared them obsolete. I seem to make exceptions for computers and cellphones. But I see others around me on their second and third cellphones. Once the market turns, say from analogue to GSM, it moves really quickly. Look at the flood of GSM over the last couple of years. Watch analogue die over days rather than years starting a month or four ago in the USA and next year in Australia. NTT can't wait around for a 3G system which is going to be wanted by subscribers much slower than a basic 'yakaway' phone. In 1991, my neighbour was a manager for Telecom NZ. I had visited QUALCOMM and was enthusiastic about the idea of CDMA. I discussed it with him and in 1992, GSM was launched in NZ. I asked him what they would do about CDMA. He said they were going with the first cab off the rank. They had to respond to GSM digital which touted itself in an absurd and destructive marketing disaster as the future, tomorrow, here today with weird ads with a back to the future theme. The average Joe on the street took a look and realized it was a phone which you couldn't use many places. It was a shambles. Meanwhile, Telecom had started installing TDMA and they expanded that system over the next few years and earlier this year decided to expand it hugely and use it as their main platform after their hugely successful analogue system became obsolete. I think now that they've cancelled that US$400m order. Much to Ericy's dismay. They are considering cdmaOne. The head honcho of Ericy 3G was here trying to rescue the position I suppose. My point is there are a lot of technology selections being made now, in China, Japan, NZ and elsewhere. cdmaOne has got the inside track. WWeb [final name of figleaf W3G = VW40 with the right chip rate, to replace cdma2000] is coming up behind. Nobody can be left behind if they have got a market presence already. Look at the disaster for Ericy. Being left behind in GSM because of a move from Yuppie phones to people phones. They missed the move. Tero has got that well figured out. Games and colours are good. My daughter wanted "the red one!" to heck with talk times, sound quality, coverage and all that - she assumed they'd all be good enough. Ericy has got to get this 3G thing moving and fast. Q! can take their time and put the screws on Ericy some more. Nokia has got a foot in all camps and a bit of delay won't hurt them as they are cleaning up in GSM and the delay will give them a chance to polish up their cdmaOne act and lay the groundwork for WWeb. But with those very low prices for GSM and cdmaOne minutes, cdmaOne doesn't really have any advantage over GSM. The capital cost of a minute is so negligible compared with the 10c per minute being charged now [usually much more than that] that the alleged capacity claims of cdmaOne over GSM are irrelevant until price competition heats up a LOT more and heads down to the 1 cent per minute range. Which I suppose will come sooner rather than later as the battle for subscribers continues and the aim is to get 50% system use instead of the 15% or whatever they have at the moment. Anyway, expect a LOT of heat and soon on NTT, Ericy and the like. Maurice