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To: DaveMG who wrote (1281)	12/20/1998 8:37:00 PM
From: kech	Respond to of 34857

Actually like all lessons it is a little more complicated than that. But clearly in that case first to market seemed to dominate claims of better technology that will arrive at some unspecified point in the future. (It hurt IS-95 then but it seems to help it in Japan). There is also an issue about the particular strategy of the firms involved. In that case McCaw was betting big time to create a national footprint - it didn't make sense to "wait" for CDMA because this would compromise their first mover advantage in the national footprint. TDMA digital was already available - CDMA was not. In other words, while it might make sense for some players to wait - it didn't make sense for McCaw. Technology choices must be consistent with the competitive strategy of the particular service provider. Hope there are no unforeseen inconsistencies with NTT's competitive strategy to go with CDMA2000.

To: DaveMG who wrote (1281)	12/22/1998 2:03:00 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 34857

Dave, "So the lesson drawn in the course is that first to market is more important than anything else? That would be good for IS95 no?" No, the lesson is to be RIGHT! First to market can be a disaster. Not too late, not too soon. Bellsouth was first to market with digital GSM in NZ. They thought they had Telecom in trouble. Telecom answered with TDMA. Bellsouth made no money for 6 years and sold to Vodafone this year. They didn't have enough advantage to pry customers away from Telecom's analogue system. Telecom put in TDMA in panic assuming that GSM would do well. They wasted a fortune on TDMA which never amounted to anything - I think they have about 16,000 customers out of 500,000 on it. Now they are both threatened by cdmaOne coming in next year. Telecom will probably use cdmaOne and ditch their TDMA. Vodafone is hacking into the market and Telecom can't respond with analogue. I bought 3 GSM Alcatel handsets to last me a year. Another thing Tero has got right. They are plenty good enough to last a year, so I don't need a Nokia $2000 gold phone, individually numbered and named. Tero said that the low end was going to be huge. I agree. How come he can't get Q! analysis correct? He even says if they fail on their cdma2000 demands, then he'll buy Q! He gets so much else right. Ericy claimed that first to market for GSM was going to kill cdmaOne before it got the chicken wire and bubblegum stuck together. No it didn't! First to market wasn't as important as good technology in that case. Slipstreaming can be very good too. Bludging off the leaders market development. Globalstar will nicely follow Iridium with a cheaper and better system. Maurice