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Technology Stocks : Winstar Comm. (WCII) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bill Turk who wrote (9744)	12/20/1998 8:31:00 PM
From: limtex	Respond to of 12468

BT "What does it take to shake the 10 million shorts?" Fear and greed in equal proportions. Regards, L

To: Bill Turk who wrote (9744)	12/20/1998 11:22:00 PM
From: Steven Bowen	Respond to of 12468

"I believe the comment I retain most is that this week was the start of another T." I think I've heard it said more that this is the start of the next Worldcom, which I would much prefer over the next T. "What does it take to shake the 10 million shorts?" I think what you have to realize is that IMO there are not that many pure naked shorts out there. It would be my guess that the majority of shorts are related to arbitraging the various high yield financing deals. For example, this 14% convertible deal we talk quite a bit about will convert to 5.4M shares of common. I would not be surprised if the holders of these convertibles were short 5.4M shares. I'd guess we see the short interest decline as they start retiring the high yield debt. "commenting on the past week" I'll wait and let the analyst figure out the technical picture, and I'll comment on the sentimental journey; To me, and I'm sure all the other long termers here, this is just very satisfying to watch this picture fall in place one piece at a time. A lot of us were here before the Telecom Act. All we had were a few licenses, the start of a great management team, and a lot of hopes, dreams, and visions. And nothing else. Not even a switch or an interconnect agreement. 95% of the world would have bet against WinStar. But it has been a tremendous amount of fun (with some pain mixed in) to sit and watch Bill and Nate (and many others, I'm sure) pull this off, one small step at a time. It boggles my mind to sit and think what this company has done in three quick years. But like Paul has said about one hundred times, "Never under esitimate the management of this company". We've always said that the only thing that could stop this company was their own failure to execute. And the Nate and Bill show continues to keep proving to us that they do intend on executing. So Thursday was just another step, or piece of the puzzle. Looking back on it three months down the road, it will probably look like a pretty small step, and we will have gone on much further. But it's a hell of journey. "Dec 17 will go down in WCII history as the defining day for WCII." I wouldn't call it a defining day, but certainly an important step. I'd call the alignment with Lucent more of a defining moment. Or at last a more important step. But I'd bet we have at least 6 more steps in the next year as important as Thursday was.

To: Bill Turk who wrote (9744)	12/21/1998 1:19:00 AM
From: SteveG	Read Replies (7) \| Respond to of 12468

It's been a particularly busy several days - there are about 75 messages yet to read on SI and I don't know how many on Yahoo (any worthwhile?). I'll post some brief comments/reflections, then I'll start posting the analyst comments from Friday (though stay tuned for updates as new models are put forth as WCII decides how to account for the WMB revenues). Later, I'll scan in and post some of the interesting meeting handout photos and details. The meeting was very well organized - a polished class act. There were about 250 from both the buy and sell side - most every firm was represented. This was the first time (according to the PR) that the full WCII story was told to the street - this was a very necessary thing IMO. As most know, I have been pretty consistently bullish since getting up to speed on the story/management - but this meeting seriously solidified my opinion in a way 30 minute conference presentations never have. IMO at this point forward, this company is a buy and hold - period. Of course I will continue to watch every tick and Q report, and stand ready to move on if the story falters - but I REALLY don't see that happening. I no longer own WCII for the likelihood of a buyout as I really don't think that is in the cards. I think WCII will be a premium end-end worldwide BB telco. The deal with WMB was a real coup, as the cost for owning fiber was what they were paying for leasing a lesser amount. Further - this is not just dark fiber - this is lit and serviced. In THIS light, $640MM is not considered an inflated price. Also, WCII could sell all of their local loop capacity if they wanted - but this is NOT their strategy. As BR said, there were 3 or 4 companies that could have been up front on Thurs (other than WMB) but WMB gave them the best deal (presumably a combination of price/strategy and management fit) - and this is a partnership - not just an exchange of capacity. There will probably be at least one more partner, maybe two more, but not (as expressed recently) more than this. There aren't many IXCs or ILECs that wouldn't benefit from a relationship with WCII - but IMO the most likely future partners (in order of fit) would be WCOM, FON, GTE or T (just because of it's size and in SPITE of it's culture). Anyway - it's late so I'll follow up with more later, but will get as many research reports posted as I have the energy for tonight - and will try to catch up on thread comments tomorrow.