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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Pitera who wrote (2433)	12/20/1998 9:47:00 PM
From: John Pitera	Respond to of 99985

Peter Eliades' Stockmarket Cycles update for Friday, December 18, 1998.It could serve us well to sit back in our easy chairs tonight and survey the world around us the world away from the stock market. Most of the world faces formidable, if not panic like financial problems, not the least of which is the demolitionary forces that are really beginning to exert themselves world wide. Within our own country, we have a wholly divided population, almost evenly divided on what the fate of their president should be. There is enough uncertainty, both economically and sociologically to justify a market being down significantly and even perhaps in a bear market. In fact, if the market were moving down at this time, precipitously, the analysis in the media would tell you that of course, it was moving down. Look at the economic uncertainty and look at the divisive factors in the country. Now let's return to reality. Today,the S&P 500 missed a new all time high by less than .4%. For all practical purposes, it is at its all time highs. On the Over the Counter Composite and the Nasdaq 100 don't even have to say almost. They closed at new all time highs today. Bullish analysts will tell you that nothing is more bullish than the market going to new all time highs. Thank you for the brilliant analysis. We try to look for the internals of the market, below the surface, and what we see there is a market that has been completely rotted by its own internal deterioration. The advance-decline line looked atrocious, not only in terms of the rally from the October 8 low, but just in the last week or two, from the rally from the early December low, the advance-decline line has not participated at all. Our own CI-NCI ratio has seldom, if ever, been this low at prior all time highs and the sentiment has not been this bullish in around a decade. That is enough to tell us that we are at or very near to a very dramatic market decline that should surprise virtually everyone. It could wait until January, but that would probably accommodate too many people. We could also see new highs first on the S&P, but it would create the worst internal conditions at a new all time high in at least 69-70 years. Mutual fund switchers, Rydex switchers are in the Ursa fund. Fidelity Select switchers are in cash. All mutual fund switchers call after 3:20 p.m. ET each market day and each evening. Stock Index futures traders, you shorted the March S&P at 1193.40 and were stopped at 1202.00 for an $8.60 loss. They had eyes for us today. As the prices were above our stop of 1202.00 for all of 30 seconds today. Literally 30 seconds before settling at 1197.20. On Monday, sell short the March S&P at 1202.90 market if touched with a stop at 1210.60. If you are stopped out at 1210.60, then reshort on a move below 1200.80 with a stop at 1210.60. If none of the above prices is available, or if you are stopped out, sell short on a move below 1188.10 with a stop at 1199.90. Have a great weekend. We'll talk to you on Monday.

To: John Pitera who wrote (2433)	12/21/1998 7:44:00 AM
From: Debra Orlow	Respond to of 99985

John, CSCO is negating the bearish divergence on the macd. This might fall, but there are others that look juicier. EMC might look better with a new high attached to it. Again, this is like the others that I mentioned. If there is a new high in price, the macd just doesn't look like it will also make a new high, and it would be a prime short. Guess it would depend on the strength of that new high should it occur. But with my system, it must occur. My opinion only. Don't get me wrong, I am extremely bearish on the Nasdaq, and will do just fine if it falls today (not saying that it will). Just waiting for things to line up....... Debra