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Gold/Mining/Energy : KERM'S KORNER -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kerm Yerman who wrote (14435)	12/21/1998 4:26:00 AM
From: Kerm Yerman	Read Replies (17) \| Respond to of 15196

MARKET WRAP -7 / Natural Gas Markets - Commentary Column Content Index 12/18 08:10 Canadian Natural Gas Stocks Fall 0.6% To 484.56 BCF 12/18 13:47 U.S. spot natural gas prices - December 18 12/18 14:25 Canadian spot natural gas domestic prices - December 18th 12/18 14:27 Canadian spot natural gas export prices - December 18th 12/18 14:47 Canada natural gas prices surge into double-digits on cold 12/18 16:34 NYMEX natural gas mostly ends up ahead of colder temps 12/21 02:35 WSC-Canadian Energy Weather 12/18 08:10 Canadian Natural Gas Stocks Fall 0.6% To 484.56 BCF In Week Ended December 11, 1998 TORONTO, Dec 18 - Canadian Gas Association (CGA) weekly survey of Canadian natural gas in storage in billion cubic feet (bcf) for the week ended Dec 11: Pct Full Pct Full 12/11/98 12/04/98 Pct Full Week Ago Year Ago East 233.43 234.84 96.0 96.6 78.3 West 251.12 252.48 90.5 91.5 76.0 Total Canada 484.56 487.32 93.1 93.9 77.0 East-West division is the Manitoba/Saskatchewan and North Dakota / Minnesota borders. East capacity 12/11/98: 243.06 bcf, 12/04/98: 243.06 bcf. 12/18 13:47 U.S. spot natural gas prices - December 18th DECEMBER ($/mmBtu) 12/18 12/17 U.S. GULF OFFSHORE 1.89/1.94 1.90/1.95 TEXAS COAST 1.93/1.98 1.94/1.99 WESTERN TEXAS 1.92/1.97 1.84/1.89 LOUISIANA COAST 1.95/2.00 1.95/2.00 NORTHERN LOUISIANA 1.97/2.02 1.97/2.02 OKLAHOMA 1.96/2.01 1.89/1.94 APPALACHIA 2.07/2.12 2.02/2.07 SO. CALIFORNIA BORDER 2.27/2.32 2.16/2.21 HENRY HUB 2.00/2.03 2.00/2.03 WAHA HUB 1.94/1.99 1.85/1.90 12/18 14:25 Canadian spot natural gas domestic prices - December 18th DOMESTIC (DEC SWING) $CDN/GJ $US/MMBTU ALBERTA PLANT-GATE 2.60/2.65 1.81/1.84 ALBERTA BORDER - EMPRESS 2.76/2.81 1.92/1.96 STATION 2, B.C. 3.10/3.15 2.16/2.19 SASK. PLANT-GATE 2.60/2.65 1.81/1.84 TORONTO CITY-GATE 2.97/3.04 2.07/2.12 1-YR PCKGS - EMPRESS 2.73/2.78 1.90/1.94 AECO 2.72/2.77 1.89/1.93 N=notional. One yr package beginning Nov. 1, 1999. Canada/U.S. dollar conversion based on Bank of Canada noon rate. One year packages converted to U.S. dollars at a 12-month forward rate. 12/18 14:27 Canadian spot natural gas export prices - December 18th EXPORT (DEC SWING) $CDN/GJ $US/MMBTU HUNTINGDON B.C. 8.62/10.05 6.00/7.00 KINGSGATE B.C. (TO PNW) 3.30/3.38 2.30/2.35 MONCHY SASK 2.37/2.44 N 1.65/1.70 N EMERSON MAN 2.84/2.92 1.98/2.03 NIAGARA ONT 3.03/3.10 2.11/2.16 Canada/U.S. dollar conversion based on Bank of Canada rate 12/18 14:47 Canada gas prices surge into double-digits on cold NEW YORK, Dec 18 - Canadian natural gas spot prices rallied into the double-digits on Friday as significantly colder weather covered the northwestern parts of Canada and U.S., industry sources said Thursday. The first burst of cold air has arrived in southern Alberta, with temperatures expected to reach a windchill of -50 degrees by Friday night, sources said. The cold weather is expected to continue into early next week, with a brief spell of milder weather possible on Tuesday. However, another cold front is forecast to quickly follow by late next week. As a result of the cold weather across western Canada and U.S., pricing at Sumas/Huntingdon surged to as high as US$15.00 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) this morning, sources said. The bulk of the deals were reported done at US$6.00-7.00. In the domestic market, prices at Alberta's AECO storage hub were quoted sharply higher at C$2.70-2.80 per gigajoule (GJ), up nearly 30 cents from Thursday. "Prices are matching January right now, so they'll have a pretty hard time getting through that. They can just take the gas out of storage instead," one Calgary-based trader said. Canadian Gas Association reported earlier Friday that stocks were 93.1 percent full, compared with 77 percent a year ago. Specifically in the west, stocks were 96 percent full, versus 78 percent in 1997. Trade at Westcoast Energy's Station 2 compressor was also much higher at C$3.00-3.25 per GJ. 12/18 16:34 NYMEX natgas mostly ends up ahead of colder temps NEW YORK, Dec 18 - NYMEX Hub natgas futures mostly ended higher Friday in a sluggish session, lifted by forecasts for much colder U.S. weather next week despite lingering concerns about bloated inventories, sources said. January climbed one cent to $2.074 per million British thermal units after trading today between $2.04 and $2.11. February settled two cents higher at $2.088. Other deferreds finished flat to up 1.1 cents. "We saw more short covering today ahead of the weather, but I think length was using the cold front as cover to exit unprofitable positions. The problem is there's nothing behind this weather system, and underlying fundamentals are so poor they don't support a move up," said one Midwest trader. Despite the approach of the season's first Arctic cold snap, many agreed bulging inventories were likely to limit any upside. Overall stocks are a hefty 654 bcf, or 27 percent, above last year and likely to grow further after next Wednesday's AGA report. WSC expects East Coast temperatures mostly to range from normal to several degrees F above normal through Tuesday. In the Midwest, readings of five to 10 degrees above normal Friday will dive to as much as 25 degrees below normal Sunday through Tuesday as an Arctic air mass moves into the region. In Texas, seasonal to above seasonal temperatures over the weekend will moderate to three to 10 degrees F below normal Monday and Tuesday. The Pacific Northwest will drop to much below normal during the period, while the Southwest will start at several degrees above normal, then slip to as much as 30 degrees below normal Sunday through Tuesday. The NWS six- to 10-day forecast released late Friday calls for below to much below normal temperatures for the upper Midwest and New England, with above normal readings expected in parts of the Mid- Atlantic, Southeast and Gulf Coast. While January broke short-term trendline resistance this week, technicians noted open interest changed little with the string of higher closes, and most needed a spot close above the $2.12-2.19 gap to turn bullish. Next resistance was pegged at $2.27 and then at $2.35. January support was seen first at $1.99 and then at this week's gap at $1.88-1.90. Better support was expected at the recent contract low of $1.79, which coincides with a prominent spot continuation low at $1.78. Major buying should emerge at $1.61, which is the spot low for the year. In the cash Friday, Henry Hub weekend gas was little changed at about $2.00. Midcon pipes firmed more than a nickel to near the $2.00 level. In the West, El Paso Permian was talked more than five cents higher in the mid-$1.90s. Gas at the Chicago city gate climbed about a dime to the mid-teens, while New York was two to three cents higher in the mid-$2.30s. The NYMEX 12-month Henry Hub strip gained 0.7 cent to $2.078. NYMEX said an estimated 59,912 Hub contracts traded today, down sharply from Thursday's revised tally of 81,315. 12/21 02:35 WSC-Canadian Energy Weather SUMMARY- Temperatures 5-10F (3-5C) above normal. IMPACT- A sharp increase in energy needs for heating during the next 5 days as the first Arctic airmass of the season settles in across the region. FORECAST- 48 HOUR...Temperatures average 3-7f (2-3c) above normal today, 3f (1c) below to 5f (2c) above normal Tuesday. 3 TO 5 DAY...Temperatures average 6-12f (3-6c) below normal during Wednesday to Friday. 6 TO 10 DAY...Temperatures average near to below normal during this period. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Chart References NYMEX HENRY-Hub NATURAL GAS PRICE CHARTS oilworld.com WEST Tx WAHA-Hub NATURAL GAS PRICE CHARTS oilworld.com OIL INDUSTRY COMBINED GRAPH CHARTS oilworld.com