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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Math Junkie who wrote (27321)	12/21/1998 4:10:00 AM
From: Skeeter Bug	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

the strong inference is that the market knows the future. otherwise, how could it price the future? my point is the future isn't known and might not turn out so great. i asked once about stock analysis as lots of people make lots of money analyzing stocks. i was told, to my surprise, that good analysis and bubble markets are mutually exclusive. i'm no longer surprised. people talk about the btb like it is the be all and the end all and everything should be judged by it. nobody cares orders are 51% down while the stock is 125% up. for now. they might tomorrow. i have news for you. from feb 1996 through now may be better than from now through early 2001. so, why the 125% increase? it is irrational (and i hear enough of that!) liquidity. too much money chasing too few stocks. cut off the liquidity and we will be guaranteed to have a 1996 mentality. this is a risk and a stock with 50% the fundamentals at 125% the price is more risky than a stock with 40% of the price and twice the fundamentals. that is my point.